As I have observed the ways of the world over the last two years I stop from time to time and ask myself,

"How can so few see what is going on?"

The facts and data are right there for all to see. And yet there are so few who question the policy actions that come down from on high which run counter to the facts on the ground.

'What are you talking about? The science is clear!"

It takes a toll. 

It can even lead to self-doubt at times. 

"Perhaps I am the one who is missing something?"

 However, the next piece of data is revealed and it is time to shake my head again.

As an example, I happened to look at the Covid trends in my home state of Ohio yesterday.

There is not a day that goes by that we don't hear that we are in a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Almost everyone in the hospital is unvaccinated, etc, etc, etc.

71% of the population of Ohio age 18+ has had at least one dose of the vaccine. That number is nearly 90% for those age 65+.

Of course, no one was fully vaccinated at this time last year based on the CDC definition (2 weeks post dose).

How do we stand a year later in Ohio?

Daily cases are up 4x what they were a year ago.

New Reported Cases (7-day average) in Ohio Source: The New York Times

Hospitalizations are 59% higher.

Covid Hospitalizations (7-day average) in Ohio Source: The New York Times

Deaths are 48% higher.

Covid Deaths (7-day average) in Ohio Source: The New York Times

When in history has a vaccine been introduced and one year later cases, hospitalizations and deaths were higher than before it was introduced?

How can that vaccine be called "effective"?

How is even possible to look at this data and place the blame for this result on the minority of people that are not vaccinated?

It defies logic and reason.

A couple of months ago I came across the work of Dr. Mattias Desmet who is a Professor of Clinical Psychology at Ghent University in Belgium. Desmet also holds a Master's Degree in Statistics.

Dr. Mattias Desmet Ghent University, Belgium

I have seen Desmet speak a couple of times on what might be called the psychology of mass psychosis.

The psychological term that Desmet uses for what we are seeing in societies around the world is "mass formation." It is a type of collective hypnosis that is essential for normal people to take leave of their senses.

"Mass Formation" recently received a lot of attention when Dr. Robert Malone referred to the theories of Desmet on Joe Rogan's podcast.

As we look back in history we wonder how it was that the citizens of Germany could have embraced Hitler and the Nazi totalitarian regime?

How could that happen?

How was it that communities in Europe and in New England in the United States became convinced that witches were in their midst and witch hunts, trials and public executions were carried out?

We look back today, shake our heads and think things like this could never happen again.

However, we are there again according to Dr. Desmet.

After noticing some anomalies in the statistical analyses early in the pandemic (Desmet is also a statistician), he became concerned with the consensus narrative and the societal reaction to the virus were totally disproportionate to the actual risks. 

He has concluded that a significant portion of people are in a state of mass psychosis which is as dangerous to our society as totalitarian regimes and witch hunts were in times past.

People have lost leave of their senses and have been willing to submit to authoritarian measures and the surrender of individual freedoms that would be unthinkable if viewed realistically.

Desmet argues it is a textbook case of "mass formation" or "mass hypnosis".

What occurs to bring on this societal condition?

Desmet states that four conditions are usually required for mass formation to develop.

• A loss of social connection in the society
• A lot of free-floating anxiety in people that is undefined
• A feeling in many people in the society that their lives lack purpose or meaning
• Frustration and discontentedness with the way things are leading to increasingly aggressive behavior

Have you noticed any such conditions in the society around you the last few years?

Mass formation results when these condition are present and a narrative is created which people  identify as the source or cause of the anxiety they feel. At the same time, a strategy for addressing and neutralizing that cause is promoted.

Hitler portrayed the Jews as the reason for the problems of the German people. In the 16th and 17th century the narrative was created that any troubles in a community such as Salem, MA were due to eccentric or non-conformist women who were branded as "witches".

Once people accept and participate in whatever strategy is promoted, people begin to feel equipped to deal with their anxiety. Doing so provides them with the feeling they are in control.

When this happens people also begin to reconnect with others in a common cause in battling a shared nemesis. They feel they are involved in a heroic struggle against what they come to believe is the source of their anxiety. Out of this solidarity also gives their lives new meaning and purpose.

Do you see any similarities here as to what has been going on around you during the pandemic?

Just as in the hypnosis of an individual in which they are placed in a state of intense concentration and focus, such that the power of suggestion becomes very powerful, mass hypnosis through mass formation results in something similar to a larger group of society.

People in this mass formation condition are so focused on what they see as the source of their anxiety, and in their new found connections with others, that they lose all perspective and the ability to think critically.

Desmet describes it this way.

Through the process of mass formation, they switch from the very painful condition of social isolation to the opposite state of maximal connectedness that exists in a crowd or a mass.

That in and of itself leads up to a sort of mental intoxication, which is the real reason people stick to the narrative, why people are willing to go along with the narrative, even, as we said, it is utterly wrong, and even if they lose everything that is important to them, personally.”

“Everyone becomes equally stupid, essentially,. It doesn’t matter how smart or intelligent they were before. They lose all capacity for critical thinking, they lose all individual characteristics.

In a mass formation people also become radically intolerant of dissident voices. Those with opposing or dissenting views pose direct threats to the construct they have created in their minds to alleviate their anxiety and discontent. Therefore, the crowd favors extreme measures in attempts to silence any dissident voices as it threatens the narrative.

At the same time, the masses are radically tolerant of their leaders who promote the mainstream narrative. These people can lie, cheat, or continually contradict themselves and will always be forgiven by the crowd. All the lying, dishonesty and misbehavior is seen by the crowd as doing it for their own safety and the common good.

By chance, have we seen anything like this in the last couple of years?

Desmet states that only about 30% of a society in a mass formation event are truly hypnotized such that they have lost the ability to reason.

However, another 40% of the society go along with the narrative even if they are unconvinced. They simply do not want to rock the boat or stick out in the crowd. That 40%, with the hypnotized 30%, is enough to insure that the narrative controls whether it makes sense or not.

The remaining 30% are not hypnotized and retain their senses according to Desmet. They do not understand how their brethren cannot see what they see and want nothing other than to wake them up to what is happening.

The ultimate danger of mass formation is that you end up with a totalitarian regime when all of those in the 30% have been silenced, marginalized or dealt with more harshly.

It probably should come as no surprise that YouTube and Twitter censored the Joe Rogan interview with Dr. Malone.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10364679/YouTube-Twitter-delete-Joe-Rogan-interview-scientist-helped-invent-MRNA-vaccines.html

After all, if you are major promoters of the narrative why would you want to risk waking people up to the fact that the narrative may be flawed?

Reuters weighed in on a "fact check" and declared there is no evidence of "mass formation psychosis" that any of the experts they talked to could see.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-psychology/fact-check-no-evidence-of-pandemic-mass-formation-psychosis-say-experts-speaking-to-reuters-idUSL1N2TN1RE

However, what do you see for yourself?

What was that about intolerance of dissident voices I wrote about above?

Speaking of intolerance, consider this editorial from the Salt Lake Tribune this past Saturday in which the editorial board of the newspaper urged the governor to mandate vaccinations and to deploy the National Guard to insure that unvaccinated people could never leave their homes.

"Were Utah a truly civilized place, the governor's next move would be to find a way to mandate the kind of mass vaccination campaign we should have launched a year ago, going as far as to deploy the National Guard to ensure that people without proof of vaccination would not be allowed, well, anywhere," the board wrote.

That would be civilized?

By the way, 73% of Utah's adult population is already fully vaccinated against Covid. 

Compare cases last year vs. this year in Utah.

How can anyone look at this surge and believe that it is being caused by the unvaccinated minority?

New Daily Cases in Utah Source: The New York Times

"No one ever said the vaccines would stop you from being infected. However, it will prevent you from being hospitalized."

Never mind.

Covid Hospitalizations in Utah Source: The New York Time

I wonder if the editorial board of the Salt Lake Tribune has taken the time to look at the daily case counts of a couple of countries that were following policies that would be considered more in keeping with their idea of "civilized"?

Australia and Israel.

Both of these countries have exhibited a strong authoritarian mindset to Covid from the beginning.

Both countries also have over a third more daily cases right now than Utah.

You might have also seen a viral video over the holidays about an incident that occurred on a Delta flight in which a woman (who was not wearing a mask) attacked an elderly man for not wearing a mask while he was eating.

Source:https://www.timesnownews.com/the-buzz/article/shocking-maskless-woman-attacks-80-year-old-man-in-flight-for-eating-without-a-mask-clip-is-viral/844405

https://youtu.be/YaYX42S3ERo

What did Desmet say about mass formation and aggressive behavior?

What was also interesting was that when the woman was arrested for assault and appeared in court she was released by the judge to fly home and told to return to Georgia for court appearances "as long as she takes her anxiety medications before flying" according to court records.

Anxiety? Mass formation?

I don't know if Desmet is right about his mass formation theory.

However, it is hard to dismiss the fact that we are seeing many of the conditions he speaks about around us every day.

For me, I will keep following the facts and deciphering the data and follow it where it leads.

For the 40% in the middle, who may be uncomfortable with what they are seeing but are in search of more facts to question the narrative, I hope I can be a trusted source. 

There is a critical need right now for more critical thinkers who are willing to stand up and being counted in these most critical times.

If you would like to learn more about Desmet's thoughts on mass formation here are a few sources that I have used in writing this blog post.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09maaUaRT4Mhttps://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/what-is-going-on-and-how-it-will

https://thecovidworld.com/mattias-desmet-professor-of-clinical-psychiatry-who-studied-the-psychology-of-totalitarianism-this-is-how-we-win/

https://daveleechina.com/totalitarianism-in-the-world-professor-mattias-desmet/

https://thomascasey.wordpress.com/2021/08/28/mass-formation-by-dr-mattias-desmet-professor-of-psychology-university-of-ghent/

https://www.extremelyamerican.com/post/dr-mattias-desmet-totalitarianism-mass-formation-in-the-world-explained

https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/12/professor-of-clinical-psychiatry-who-studied-the-psychology-of-totalitarianism-this-is-how-we-win/https://dailysceptic.org/interview-with-mattias-desmet-professor-of-clinical-psychology/

https://thebluestateconservative.com/2021/10/08/mass-formation-the-psychological-term-to-describe-societys-brain-melting/

https://jamesfetzer.org/2021/11/dr-joseph-mercola-the-phenomenon-of-mass-formation/

There are signs that this week will mark the peak of this Winter's Covid surge.

The chart of daily cases indicates that we are very close to reaching a peak in the 7-day average of new daily cases.

if you look closely you can make out an almost imperceptible peak forming as a result of slowing case growth.

New Daily Covid Cases in the United States-7 day average Source: The New York Times

This week will mark 45 days since the current so-called Omicron surge began.

I have written previously about the fact that Covid surges typically follow a pattern in which cases rise for approximately 45 days before they begin to fall at the same rate they rose.

This is what I wrote about this phenomenon in my blog post "The Illusion of Control" last August.

There seems to be a pattern with Covid in which cases surge for 45 days when a major outbreak begins until it turns down.

You can observe this pattern in the UK in the wave last Winter as well as the recent so-called Delta variant wave.

You can see the same pattern in India where the Delta variant is reported to have originated.

At the time I wrote that blog post Florida was experiencing a major seasonal summer surge just as it had in 2020.

Based on the 45-day pattern I predicted that Florida's surge would soon end and cases would decrease at the same rate that they have increased.

This would mean that daily cases would return to about the same level they were at in another 45 days after reaching the peak (90 days from the beginning of the surge).

This is exactly what occurred.

This pattern seems to repeat itself regardless of the interventions that are implemented.

Florida's cases came down without mask mandates, lockdowns or vaccine mandates even though Dr. Fauci and the experts were predicting that disaster loomed in that state in the coming weeks with schools opening.

If we follow the same pattern again it would appear that we will reach the peak in Covid cases from this surge nationally sometime this week.

The current surge in the United States generally began in the first week of December in most parts of the United States. The surge started earlier in the Northeast and later in the Western states.

For example, in New York the case surge seems to have started on November 28.

The peak has apparently already been reached on January 9---42 days after it started.

New Daily Covid Cases in New York- 7 Day Average Source: The New York Times

Note that the average daily case case appears to be falling at the same rate as it increased.

Massachusetts is another state that appears to have hit its peak and started down 42 days after it began.

New Daily Cases in Massachusetts-7 day average Source: The New York Time

New Daily Cases in Florida-7 day average Source: The New York Times

Cases in California did not begin surging until two weeks after the Northeast surge.

Daily cases are still increasing.

However, I would expect the peak to be reached in California within the next week or two.

You can already see indications in the chart that daily case increases are slowing.

New Daily Cases in California- 7 day average Source: The New York Times

If the full pattern holds this indicates that we should see daily cases declining by as much as 90% in early March from the peaks that will be reached this month.

This decrease will be reached irrespective of vaccine passports, mask mandates, booster uptake or anything else. The pattern is almost surely to be the same in free Florida as it is in restricted and mandated California.

In fact, the data indicates that the more boosters are used the higher the cases that seem to develop.

The most interesting chart I saw this week compared Israel and Palestine.

It is simply remarkable.

Yes, the difference might be explained by the much greater number of tests in Israel.

However, might it also have something to do with the number of vaccination doses given?

Palestine has vaccinated less than 30% of its population and almost no one has received a booster dose.

Is this merely a coincidence?

Ireland is another country that has boosted almost the same percentage of its population as Israel.

It is not going well there either.

Is it also a coincidence that the United States has boosted less than half of the percentage of its population as Israel and Ireland and is seeing significantly lower average daily case counts than these two countries?

Joe Biden and his Covid "experts" are pushing for everyone to get booster doses as the way out of the pandemic.

However, it appears that more and more people are tuning out the narrative and looking at what is going on around them.

The boosters were first recommended for immunocompromised individuals in the middle of August. They were generally recommended for everyone age 18+ in the middle of September.

To this point, about 80 million booster doses have been administered.

By comparison, at a similar time period after the Covid vaccines were first introduced, 160 million Americans had received at least one dose.

That indicates half they people who got the original vaccine doses are being much more deliberative about being jabbed again.

The way out of the pandemic is for everyone to get boosted?

Would it not be ironic if the best way forward is actually having millions upon millions of people making a decision to do the exact opposite of what they are being told?

People looking at the data, seeing what is happening around them and perhaps taking account of their prior experience with the vaccine and deciding that what they are being told is not in their best interests.

That would be weird wouldn't it?

It might be as "weird" as what we are seeing in Scotland as it is the unvaccinated have lower admissions rates for hospitalization than those single, double or triple jabbed.

Source: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19843315.covid-scotland-case-rates-lowest-unvaccinated-double-jabbed-elderly-drive-rise-hospital-admissions/?ref=twtrec

It is called "weird" data in the newspaper article.

What if it is not "weird"?

What if it is what it is but none of the "experts" wants to admit it?

One expert in the UK is looking at the data and has declared it is a "waste of time" to keep vaccinating people. Why? It is because it is now clear that these vaccines don't stop infection and transmission. Therefore, the focus should solely be on managing the virus in order to protect those who are most vulnerable by stopping the progression to severe disease in these individuals according to Dr. Clive Dix.

Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com

Will we see more "experts" coming to this conclusion?

Bookmark this post and check back in two months.

Is the fact that the vaccinated appear to more vulnerable to Omicron than the unvaccinated mean that the data should be referred to as "weird"?

Is the 45 day pattern "weird" or real?

Am I correct in predicting this is peak week?

As always, the data does not lie.

We will find out the answers to all these questions together over the next 60 days.

Last July I wrote a blog post in which I predicted that Joe Biden's approval rating was likely to soon start sinking fast.

The polls indicated that Biden's approval on issues such as immigration, crime and addressing gun violence were all well below 50%.

However, I believed that his advisors should be more concerned about the issues that Biden had majority approval on at the time.

I predicted that each of these issues had the potential to turn decidedly against Biden in the coming months.

In July, Biden had 63% approval for his handling of Covid. 

He had 55% approval on his handling of the upcoming Afghanistan withdrawal.

Biden had 53% approval on the economy.

I saw trouble ahead on all three for Biden.

I asked where Biden's approval would be if Covid cases started rising, the Afghan withdrawal ended in chaos and inflation proved to be much more than a transitory problem?

Since Biden was underwater on the other big issues if he ran into trouble on these three issues his approval rating would sink very fast.

Biden's performance on those three issues over the last six months could not be much worse.

Biden's Afghan withdrawal turned out to be one of the greatest foreign policy disasters in American history.

Covid cases have exploded to heights that are unimaginable considering that six months ago Biden and his public health experts were telling everybody that if you were vaccinated you could not be infected or transmit the virus.

Joe Biden said this on a CNN Town Hall telecast on July 21, 2021.

"You're not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations."

U.S. New Reported Covid Cases- 7-day average Source: New York Times

Inflation is raging. We found out yesterday that the consumer price index has increased 7% over the last 12 months. We have not seen anything similar in 39 years.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-prices-surged-7-2021-133433217.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

What is particularly alarming is that price increases were greatest in those things average families rely on to live and make a living ---gasoline prices +49.6%, used cars and trucks +37.3%, natural gas prices +24.1%, food +6.3%.

The depths that Joe Biden is sinking is evident in recent polls.

Rasmussen was out with a poll yesterday that had Biden's approval at 40% and disapproval at 58%.

Despite Donald Trump facing continuing attacks throughout his entire first year about "Russia collusion", which we now know to be completely fabricated, Trump's approval rating on the same date in 2018 was 46%.

By contrast, Biden is largely getting a free pass from the media and he is sitting at 40% by the same pollster.

Even worse for Biden is a Quinnipiac poll of voting age adults that has him at 33% approval. 53% disapprove. 

Look at Biden's trend in approval in the last seven Quinnipiac polls starting in May.

49%--46%---42%---38%---37%---36%---33%.

What I find most interesting in the Quinnipiac poll numbers is how far Biden's support has evaporated in two groups that the Democrats have traditionally considered key constituencies.

Democrats have relied on young voters for strong support over the last several decades.

Biden had a +24 point advantage with 18-29 year old voters in 2020.

In the Quinnipiac poll Biden is -28 in his approval rating with 18-34 age voters.

Biden only has a 24% approval rating with this age group. 52% disapprove.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf

Has any political office holder ever fallen faster and further with any demographic group in history than Biden has with young voters?

Hispanic voters are another group that Democrats have come to rely on.

Attempting to appeal to this group seems to be the sole reason that the Democrats keep pushing for the insane immigration policies they do.

Biden had a +31 point advantage with Hispanics in 2020.

Hillary Clinton did even better in 2016. She was +37 with this group in 2016.

Biden is -23% with Hispanics.

Just 28% of Hispanics approve of Biden's job performance. 51% disapprove.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf

It is expected that a politician is not going to have the approval of those of the other party.

Biden has a 2% approval rating with Republicans.

Warning signs appear when Independents turn their thumbs down on your performance.

Biden has a 25% approval rating with Independents.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf

However, when you lose the approval of large blocs of voters who have traditionally supported your party you are in deep, deep trouble.

That is where Joe Biden finds himself right now.

Biden is sinking so deep that we are starting to see Democrats distance themselves lest they be sucked into the quicksand with him.

I thought it notable that Georgia's likely Democrat candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, was a "no-show" when Biden was in Georgia yesterday for a speech in that state.

Source: https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-joe-biden-voting-atlanta-stacey-abrams-7bb6e8cd4ad78267cc56d713ecdbf39d

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-stacey-abrams-unpopular-biden-georgia

Politicians can survive if all they have to worry about are their foes.

They cannot survive when those who are supposed to be their "friends" start to abandon them.

Based on the polling, Joe Biden is losing large blocs of those who should be reliable supporters.

All Democrats have to be looking at this with alarm.

Is Biden going to drag me down with him?

The 2022 mid-term elections are still 10 months away but in the end the only thing that is important to any politician is THEIR ELECTION.

If Joe Biden can help them he is described as a great friend.

If Joe Biden becomes a liability to their election he will be considered an unwelcome stranger.

It will be interesting to see how 2022 unfolds on this score.

If Biden sinks much deeper there may be no coming back for him and his friends. 

Since the beginning of the pandemic it has been the narrative that controls rather than science or data.

Remember in the first several months of the pandemic when the narrative was that wearing masks were useless for the general population?

The narrative later changed and it was argued that everyone needed to wear a mask. Masks were mandated almost everywhere in the last six months of 2020.

The science never changed. Scientific studies involving masks consistently showed that anything less than N95 or K95 masks in the general population were of marginal benefit. The science was the same before the pandemic began and it is the same today.

Masks generally disappeared almost everywhere in the early summer of 2021 (except for school-age children!). As cases starting rising in the Fall, the CDC attempted to once again change the narrative and state that masks should be worn by everyone.

However, we are increasingly seeing more and more "experts" now arguing that the cloth face masks that almost everyone was wearing are useless.

“We want to make sure that it is not a cloth mask. A cloth mask does not offer protection,” says Asha Shajahan of the Mayo Clinic.

Now they tell us.

So what about all those kids that still have to wear them to school?

Similarly, we have seen the narrative change on the effectiveness of the vaccines.

At first, you were told that if you were vaccinated you were not going to get the virus or transmit it to someone else.

They told us that the vaccinated did not carry or spread the virus.

Tony Fauci said that the vaccines would mean Covid would hit a dead end and disappear.

These same people have now changed the narrative and are saying that "nobody ever said that you could not be infected with Covid and transmit the virus if you were vaccinated."

However, this is a video montage of everybody important saying it.

The narrative has even changed with those who make the vaccines.

Here is the Pfizer CEO claiming in April, 2021 that its vaccine was 100% effective in preventing Covid-19. 

100% as in there would be NONE, ZERO, NADA infections after taking the vaccine.

What is he saying now? 

Two doses offers very limited protection, if any.

Three doses with the booster offers only "reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths."

That is quite a change in the narrative.

You can see from this that the new narrative is that "Yes, the vaccines don't stop infections and transmission but they prevent hospitalizations and deaths."

Why has the narrative changed?

Facts are getting in the way. 

Cases in the United States. 

+261% of last winter's peak. 71% of age 12+ are fully vaccinated.

New Reported Cases  (7-day average) in United States

That is nothing compared to what is going on in Rhode Island.

+545% of last winter's peak. 85% of age 12+ fully vaccinated.

New Reported Cases  (7-day average) in Rhode Island

Or in Australia.

+3,280% compared to this time last year. 92% of age 16+ fully vaccinated.

It has been hard to maintain the narrative in the face of these facts.

What about the narrative we still hear almost every day now?

"You may get sick but you won't have to be hospitalized."

"The vast majority of everyone in the hospital is unvaccinated."

Is this true?

Or will this be the next part of the narrative that falls apart because of THE  FACTS?

Let's look at the data and you can decide.

At the peak in hospitalizations last year in the USA(January 9, 2021) there were new daily Covid hospital admissions of 7/100,000 for all age groups. That number was 30/100.000 for those age 70+.

United States New Daily Covid Hospital Admissions Per 100,000 Population 2021 Peak-January 9, 2021 Source: New York Times

United States New Daily Covid Hospital Admissions Per 100,000 Population January 10, 2022 Source: New York Times

Overall hospital admissions are higher right now than they were at last year's peak.

8/100,000 now vs.7/100,000 last year.

Hospital admissions are below last year's peak right now for age 70+ but my guess is that this will soon be exceeded.

Note as well that every other age group has hospital admission rates that are equal to or higher than last year.

This is with the vaccines.

How do hospital admissions look like in Rhode Island which has the second highest vaccination rate in the nation ( One % point less than Vermont).

This is Rhode Island's daily hospital admission at last winter's peak on December 12, 2020.

This is with 0% vaccinated.

Rhode Island New Daily Covid Hospital Admissions Per 100,000 Population 2020/21 Winter Peak-December 12, 2020 Source: New York Times

These are the Rhode Island numbers now with 85% ages 12+ fully vaccinated and 95% of age 65+ fully vaccinated.

Hospital admissions have increased from 4/100,000 to 7/100,000 overall for all ages.

For age 70+, hospital admissions have increased from 18 to 25 with 95%+ fully vaccinated!

Rhode Island New Daily Covid Hospital Admissions Per 100,000 Population January 10, 2022 Source: New York Times

Considering the high vaccination rates is it believable that the increased hospital rates are really being caused by the minority of those who are unvaccinated?

Further, how could hospital admissions go up at all overall when almost 3/4 of the entire population age 12+ is fully vaccinated? How then can the vaccines be called "effective"?

The narrative defies all logic.

For that reason, we are already seeing subtle changes in the narrative.

The CDC and others are now suggesting that all of those in the hospital WITH Covid are not necessarily in the hospital FOR Covid.

This is a distinction that many suggested should be made in the past but was always rebuffed.

That is no longer the case.

As hospitalizations rise, the narrative is falling apart.

It it time for another narrative adjustment.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said this on Fox News Sunday in an attempt to downplay the rising hospitalization numbers.

In some hospitals that we've talked to, up to 40 percent of the patients who are coming in with COVID-19 are coming in not because they're sick with COVID, but because they're coming in with something else and have had to -- COVID or the omicron variant detected.

 

At this point Covid death have not increased to the same degree as cases and hospitalizations have in this surge. The vaccines may be the reason. Better treatment protocols and less virulence in Omicron might also be contributing factors.

Whatever the reason, let's hope it continues.

Covid Hospitalizations and Deaths Source: New York Times

However, Walensky also appears to be in the first stages of changing the narrative on deaths as well. Is she hedging her bets?

In the same Fox News Sunday interview, the CDC Director was asked what the breakdown of deaths were between those WITH Covid and FROM Covid.

On Sunday, Walensky was asked by Fox News anchor Bret Baier how many of the 800k+ covid deaths in America were “with covid” as opposed to “from covid.” He inquired, “Do you know how many of the 836,000 deaths in the U.S. linked to COVID are from COVID or how many are with COVID but they had other comorbidities? Do you have that breakdown?”

“Yes, of course with Omicron we’re following that very carefully,” Walensky dodged. “Our death registry, of course, takes a few weeks to — and is a — takes a few weeks to collect, and of course, Omicron has just been with us for a few weeks, but those data will be forthcoming.”

Two years into this you would think the CDC would have that data readily available.

It has only now become necessary because of Omicron?

Why wasn't it critical before?

It undoubtedly is due to the high number of vaccinated people being hospitalized and dying with Covid positive tests.

It is time for them to create another narrative.

Everyone should understand and expect this now.

It is not about the science.

It is not about the data.

It is not about the facts.

It has always been about the narrative.

However, the narrative is falling apart each and every day.

Everyone wants to know when and how the Covid chaos will end?

Who would have bet on this ending a year ago?

This was the headline I saw last week in the Times of Israel. 

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-covid-outbreak-intensifies-israel-said-mulling-mass-infection-policy/

In light of the lack of immediate rise in serious illness, Channel 12 news reported Tuesday evening that senior officials in the Health Ministry have recently raised the option of switching to a “mass infection model.”

That would mirror Sweden’s policy in the early stage of the pandemic, which saw the country elect not to impose major restrictions on people who aren’t in risk groups, in a bid to continue normal life while eventually reaching herd immunity.

Israel was the first country in the world to start the mass vaccination of its people.

It cut an exclusive deal with Pfizer for enough doses for all its citizens when the Pfizer shot was under development.

Israel started mass vaccinations in mid-December, 2021 and in just over a month it had vaccinated 82% of its population.

Israel subsequently started booster shots for its population before any other country in the world. Almost half of the population has received a booster shot.

Israel has already recommended that everyone over age 60 and health care workers should get a 2nd booster---four in all in just one year.

It has been reported that Israel has already purchased and has on order 60 million total doses of Covid vaccines.

The population of Israel is 9 million---that equals about 7 vaccine doses for every man, woman and child in the country

Why is Israel even considering such a change in policy.

They are looking at the same vertical trajectory in Covid cases that we are seeing in the United States, Europe and elsewhere.

At the current rate of the Omicron surge in Israel, we will be seeing another record number of new cases in Israel.

This is despite the fact that Israel has vaccinated and boosted its population earlier and more aggressively than almost any other country in the world.

It is worth noting that soon after Israel started its mass vaccination program in December, 2020, and its booster program in late July, 2020, cases spiked to new record peaks. Is this just a coincidence?

The reports say they are not there yet on reversing course but the fact that Israel is even considering it says a lot at this juncture.

Israel might also be looking at what is transpiring in Iceland right now.

Iceland is another country that was very aggressive in its vaccination policy. Many experts hailed the way Iceland navigated the pandemic.

Iceland is more vaccinated than Israel is.

83% of the entire population is fully vaccinated with two doses of the Covid vaccine.

59% of the population has received a booster. That is the highest percentage in the world

It is not looking very good for Iceland right now despite all of those jabs.

Cases in Iceland are almost double what we are seeing in the United States in early January, 2022.

Iceland is also seeing more Covid infections per capita among fully vaccinated adults than those unvaccinated. 

Source: https://www.covid.is/data

The current rate is 5,158/100,000 for fully vaccinated compared to 2,755 for those unvaccinated. If you add the infection rate for boosted adults (1,846/100.000) to the fully vaccinated rate, those who are vaccinated are 2.5 times as likely to be testing positive for Covid right now.

All of this should give pause to anyone who has placed all of their bets on the vaccines to stop Covid and return as to any semblance of normal.

Do I think Israel will move to a "herd immunity" policy?

I would consider it unlikely for the simple reason that it would mean the experts would have to admit they were wrong.

As we know, that is extraordinarily difficult to do. No one wants to admit they were wrong. That is even truer when it would require "the experts" to humble themselves. Throw in the fact about how high the costs that have been inflicted on the world by those decisions, and it seems an impossibility. In effect, it would be admitting to the greatest public policy error in human history.

However, considering the respect most of the world has for Israel's scientific knowledge and prowess, it might represent a turning point in how other countries approach the virus if Israel did something so dramatic.

Is this the way the Covid chaos will end?

Nothing can surprise me anymore about anything to do with Covid.

I will end with this.

This week Idaho has had the lowest Covid cases per capita in the United States.

The bottom five on The New York Times Covid tracker pages for current cases per 100,000 is below.

Source: New York Times Covid Tracker, January 6, 2022

At the same time, Idaho also has the lowest % of its population in the nation fully vaccinated.

Who had that on their Covid betting card a year ago?

Or even three months ago?

I know Tony Fauci didn't.

I will say it again.

Nothing can surprise me with Covid 

Proponents of the Covid vaccines argue that they should not be judged on the number of cases we are seeing but their ability to reduce deaths in the population.

I think we can see why you hear that argument a lot these days.

Over 1 million new cases were reported in the United States yesterday. Some of these are a result of delayed reporting during the holidays but it is still an astounding number.

That is over 3x higher than any single day in last season's peak. The 7-day average is twice as high as last winter's peak.

Source: The New York Times

We are seeing similar patterns in other highly vaccinated countries.

Source Data; Our World in Data Chart: BeeLine

Let's take a look at the mortality data and put this subject in context.

Before the pandemic, there were about 2.8 million deaths per year in the United States. It has been remarkably consistent number year in and year out in the past. 

Of these, about 2.1 million were of those age 65+ and .7 million were under age 65.

In 2020, total deaths increased to 3.35 million----an increase of over 500,000.

The CDC official tally shows 385,430 Covid deaths in 2020.

This chart provides you with a graphic view of where we were on deaths pre-pandemic and what 2020 looked like.

Complete data on deaths in the United States for 2021 is not available as the reports lag between the death certificates being filed in each state and those deaths being reported to the CDC.

However, as of December 29, the CDC was showing 3,231,874 deaths thus far in 2021 of which 429,376 were Covid deaths.

The CDC data typically lags at least one month behind actual death reports. Therefore, it would be expected that the final numbers for deaths in 2021 would need a completion factor of at least 1.08 (1/12) so that we can compare the expected final mortality numbers in 2021 with 2020.

Below is the same chart above with 2021 included using  CDC actual numbers (as of 12/29/21) adjusted by a 1.08 completion factor on all deaths and Covid deaths.

As you can see, total deaths, deaths from Covid and excess deaths will be higher in 2021 than in 2020.

The vaccines have been effective at reducing deaths but overall deaths and Covid deaths have increased in 2021 with vaccines compared to 2020 without them?

Where is the logic in this?

How can this be called "effective"?

What is most troubling is to see the breakdowns in deaths between those under age 65 compared to those over age 65.

Deaths for those age 65+ are up 19% in both 2020 and 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

However, deaths for those under age 65 are up 35% in 2021compared to the 2019 level. Deaths were up 22% in these ages between 2019 and 2020.

When in human history has there ever been an effective vaccine introduced in which deaths went up?

This is particularly true for those under age 65 comparing 2021 vs. 2020.

Covid deaths in this age group almost doubled despite vaccines being available in 2021?

Vaccine advocates would argue that is because the Delta variant is more deadly. That is the reason that Covid deaths increased in 2021. It would have been SO MUCH WORSE without the vaccines.

They would further argue that the fact that age 65+ deaths did not increase further in 2021 was due to high vaccination rates in this age group. Covid deaths doubled in those under age 65 in 2021 because these age groups were not as fully vaccinated.

It is good argument if it could be proven that the Delta variant was actually much more lethal than the original Covid strain.

However, there is no hard evidence to prove that. The CDC even admits that in their discussion of Delta on its website.

The CDC states that it is the unvaccinated who should have greatest concern about Delta while the "highly effective" Covid vaccines will continue to almost always prevent severe disease and death for the vaccinated.

The COVID-19 vaccines approved or authorized in the United States are highly effective at preventing severe disease and death, including against the Delta variant. But they are not 100% effective, and some fully vaccinated people will become infected (called a breakthrough infection) and experience illness. For all people, the vaccine provides the best protection against serious illness and death.

This is the best article I could find that summarized the data on the science concerning the lethality of the Delta variant.

Source: https://www.king5.com/article/news/verify/verify-is-delta-covid-variant-more-deadly-transmissible/281-8accb0db-8e3f-492b-8c5b-39948d1ec9bf

The delta variant is the dominant COVID-19 strain worldwide, but is it deadlier than the other variants?

The delta variant is often called “highly transmissible” and “more-deadly,” but is that true?
To verify, we compiled studies out of China, India, Scotland and consulted with Dr. Larry Corey, who is coordinating all of the COVID-19 vaccine research in the U.S.

"There's no evidence that it's more deadly,” said Corey. “There is evidence that it's more infectious and more infectious to others, i.e., more transmissible. But [is it] actually more severe? There's really not good hard evidence of that."

Therefore, if there is no good evidence that Covid was more lethal in 2021 than 2020, why are deaths up in 2021?

More and more questions are starting to be asked.

The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

The 40% increase he cites in the death rate of 18-64 year olds is very similar to the 35% rate I calculated above in the under age 65 CDC data. When you exclude the observed low death rates in the 1-17 year old age groups in the last two years ( which are included in my numbers), the 40% number this CEO cites appears to be very close to the CDC data referenced above.

Let me provide some more context on what a 40% deviation from the norm means in statistical terms.

The life insurance CEO refers to a 10% deviation as a three-sigma event. The CEO said that this would be classified statistically as a one-in-200 year catastrophe.

A six-sigma event, which is the 20% deviation seen in deaths for the age 65+ age group, would be considered to be a one-in-300,000 year event.

A 40% deviation (what we have seen in the 18-64 age group at OneAmerica) would be considered by statisticians to be a 12-sigma event. A statistician that I follow commented on the OneAmerica data and explained what the chances of that occurring are.

A 12-sigma event is where geeky statisticians who have seen enough tables to know the round-numbers by heart have to look up the capacity of their software package to see if it's well enough powered to perform the calculation. Whatever it is, it's far more likely that an asteroid collides with Indiana tomorrow, ejecting 400 basketball-sized fragments as it falls that each make a perfect swoosh through the nets in every cornfield basketball hoop in the Hoosier state two seconds before destroying all of human civilization (really, I computed that in my head).

The CEO explained that the huge increase in morality in the insurance claims they have received cannot be explained by Covid based on the death certificates accompanying the death claims.

That statement is also supported in the CDC data I used in developing the charts above.

Covid deaths explain only about half of the increase in excess deaths in the under age 65 age group.

What is causing the other excess deaths?

We know drug overdoses are up over the last two years.

We know suicides have increased.

What else could it be?

I found it interesting that the CEO  stated that OneAmerica was also seeing an increase in disability claims in the working age population at the same time that deaths were increasing.

He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims.

Why is it that you can have deaths increasing by 40% in the working age population of the country (those most responsible for keeping the economy going and paying the taxes that support the society) and there are not more people asking what is going on?

Why is this happening?

One thing is for certain.

You don't see this CEO or much of anyone else who risks being censored raising any question as to whether the policy responses to the pandemic (lockdowns, school closures, etc) did more harm than good.

Are the excess deaths related to the response?

What other explanation could there be?

You also certainly don't see him questioning what role the vaccines might be playing in all of this. That would be a sure path for this man to soon being an ex-CEO considering the current environment.

I don't know the answer as to what is going on with deaths.

However, it is difficult to find support for the argument that the vaccines are highly effective in preventing deaths when deaths have increased over the last year.

It is especially troubling that deaths in the working age cohort have increased even more after the introduction of the vaccines. 

Not just a little.

By orders of magnitude that are almost incomprehensible when viewed through science----actuarial science.

In the end, the data always wins.

However, as has been the case from the beginning of this pandemic, very few people in charge are looking at the data and most everyone is afraid to challenge the narrative.

If there is one thing we should hope and pray for in 2022 it is that more people will start asking two simple questions.

What is going on?

Why has this happened?

And those in a position to know should start providing honest answers.

As we begin the new year let's take account of the state of the virus.

Since the Covid virus was unleashed on the world over two years ago our experts have believed that they could control and outsmart the virus.

They told us the virus could be defeated by social distancing, washing our hands, locking down businesses, closing schools and wearing face masks.

Source: https://abc7chicago.com/masks-face-us-covid/6320058/

They told us that those vaccinated could not spread the virus.

April 1, 2021 Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/04/cdc-data-suggests-vaccinated-dont-carry-cant-spread-virus.html

The experts said that the vaccines would mean Covid would hit a dead end and disappear.

May 16, 2021 Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/553773-fauci-vaccinated-people-become-dead-ends-for-the-coronavirus

They then said that boosters on top of the original doses of the vaccine would be the answer to get us to normal.

Source: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/boosters-for-all-is-critical-not-a-luxury-fauci-says-as-fda-decision-nears/

The virus has always won.

Right now it is winning like it is Alabama playing the Sisters of Mercy junior high football team.

Transport yourself back in time to one year ago just as the vaccines were being introduced and having someone show you this chart predicting how Covid pandemic cases would look over the next year.

New reported cases (7-day average) in the United States as of 12/31/21 Source: The New York Times

The 7-day average of cases was almost exactly double on December 31, 2021 as it was a year earlier shortly after the vaccines were first administered.

Imagine how quickly that person would have been permanently banned by Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn a year ago for spreading dangerous lies and misinformation like this?

The graphs look even worse in heavily vaccinated Washington, DC, New York and New Jersey.

On December 31 all had reached new daily case averages that were over 300% above last winter's peak daily case average.

Source: The New York Times

.

If anyone had a peek at the future a year ago and saw how this would unfold could they have possibly believed that these vaccines were "effective" let alone considered to be "an honest-to-God miracle?

Source: https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/03/29/covid-19-vaccine-miracle-life-pandemic-240312

Keep in mind that these official daily case counts right now are undoubtedly seriously undercounting cases relative to last year because there are so many home self-tests now being used.

In the meantime, the experts are busy trying to revise history by claiming that no one ever said that the vaccines were going to prevent you from getting Covid.

The problem is that all of them said it. You see can it here.

Source: https://twitter.com/KoaTheGreat/status/1475647117808967680

I am one person who did not say it.

I wrote this in October, 2020 (two months BEFORE the vaccines were authorized) after I read how the testing protocols for the Covid vaccines were being conducted. I asked at that time what was the point of having vaccines that did not have a primary goal of preventing infection?

Prevention of infection is the normal critical end point goal for any vaccine trial. The vaccine should be effective at preventing infection and stopping the spread of the virus. This is particularly important at this time when we have a virus that has caused a pandemic.

However, that is not the stated goal of the Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson vaccines that are currently in late stage trials with the expectation they will be ready for widespread distribution within several months.

... in none of the vaccine trial protocols for any of these vaccines is the prevention of infection considered a criterion of success.

The vaccines are to be considered a success merely if they reduce the severity of the symptoms of someone who is infected with Covid.

This is further confirmed in the vaccine testing protocols in that none of the vaccine candidates list preventing hospitalizations and deaths as primary goals of the vaccines either.

What then is the point of spending billions and billions of dollars on these vaccines?

Of course, the FDA also said it when it gave the EUA (emergency use authorization) which was based on the assertion that the vaccines were "to prevent coronavirus disease 2019."

For example, this is an excerpt from the review memorandum from the FDA when the EUA was granted for the Pfizer vaccine. 

Source: Source: https://www.fda.gov/media/144416/download

As I have stated previously, there is evidence to suggest that the vaccines have reduced hospitalizations and deaths.

However, the data suggests that the claims have been vastly oversold.

How often have we have heard that "99%" or "almost everyone" in the hospital, or has died from Covid over the last year, has been unvaccinated?

Source: UK Covid-19 Surveillance Report, Week 51, Page 38 Since most of the deaths are in those age 60+, and these age groups have vaccination rates exceeding 90%, there is evidence of a protective benefit from the vaccine in this data. Full effectiveness with a 90% vaccine rate would equate to a 10% death rate. No effectiveness would be a 90% death rate. A 70% death rate indicates a marginal benefit.

Interestingly, data from Ontario released this week also shows that 66% of hospitalizations in that Canadian province are fully vaccinated. Only 29% of cases are in those unvaccinated.

Source: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

29% is a long way from 99%.

Again, the data indicates that the vaccines are providing some benefit at keeping people out of the hospitals. However, the claims made about reduced hospitalizations due to the vaccines seem wildly exaggerated.

I wish I could provide you with U.S. data from the CDC but it is not publishing this information in the same detail and timeliness that is available in other parts of the world.

However, what would explain why the U.S. data would be materially different? 

What is most disturbing about the state of the virus right now is that it appears to actually be disproportionately attacking the vaccinated. 

For example, right now in Ontario there are 33% more Covid cases per capita in those fully vaccinated than in those not vaccinated.

Source: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

A report out of German also shows a disproportionate amount of Omicron cases are in the fully vaccinated.

Source: https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1476780404090699778

In Israel, 65% of the population is fully vaccinated. 45% is boosted. 35% is unvaccinated.

79% of cases last week were in those fully vaccinated or boosted. Only 19% of cases are in unvaccinated although that group represents 35% of the population.

Source: https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1476586273095577601

It seems that no matter where we look the virus is winning against human interventions.

In fact, as the charts above indicate, we may have actually boosted the virus through use of the vaccines.

In Australia, which has used internment camps to quarantine those infected or with close contacts with Covid, the daily 7-day average of cases looks like this.

91% of everyone age 16+ is fully vaccinated in Australia.

One of the most remarkable statistics I have seen since the beginning of the pandemic is that Australia had more new cases of Covid on a single day (December 31, 2021) than it had in the entire year of 2020!

Chart: BeeLine

On January 1, 2022, cases on that single day in Australia (60,006 new daily cases) were more than twice what they were for the entire year 2020!

If there remains any doubt in your mind that the experts have totally failed in telling us that they could control and outsmart the virus with the vaccines and other human interventions, consider this story out of Antarctica.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59848160

Despite everyone being fully vaccinated and tested before arriving at one of the most remote outposts in the world, 16 of 25 of workers at the Belgium scientific research station have caught the virus.

Such is the state of the virus.

The problem that the experts face now is that they have told people for almost two years they have had all the answers as to how to end this.

They have also tried to censor and marginalize anyone who challenged the narrative.

All of this was done under a social contract in which people gave up some of their freedoms and trusted that the public authorities knew what they doing in furtherance of the best interests of the greater good.

More people have sacrificed individual freedom and rights in the name of public health over the last two years that at any time in history.

Billions of people agreed to be vaccinated against Covid on the promise that it would allow them to regain their freedom and/or protect other people in their communities.

Many did so against their own conscience under coercion in order to travel, socialize or retain their job.

However, more and more people are beginning to see that the social contract was violated by public authorities who have been arrogant and close-minded in their approach. The social contract does not work if there are no tangible results to show for it. Many are now seeing that their sacrifices were for naught.

If those public authorities were smart they would usher in 2022 with a new-found humility and confession about their many errors.

Their arrogance and unwillingness to consider other opinions and alternative approaches to confront the virus have harmed untold millions.

As a result, the state of many unions around the world will be harmed due to the damage done to the social contract.

Judgments are coming in 2022.

We will undoubtedly see many of the "experts" walk back previous statements, make excuses or attempt to rewrite history in order to cover their rear ends.

Those who are unwilling to admit the errors of the path they put society on will fall hard.

It is long past time that the responsible authorities put their pride aside and replace their hubris with a measure of humility regarding the harm they visited upon those who provided them such unfounded trust.

Proverbs 16:18

“Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.”

Here is a Top 10 List for the Best of BeeLine for 2021. The first five are the most popular posts I wrote during the year based on the number of views. The second five are a few of my personal favorites out of the 131 blog posts I wrote during the year. 

Covid again dominated the headlines during 2021 and it also continues to command the most interest from my readers. All of the five most popular posts I wrote during the year were about Covid. There is no doubt we are all worn out from Covid. I wish I could write about something else. However, the popularity of my posts on the subject indicate that there are a lot of people looking for honest, data-driven information to put the subject in perspective.

If you missed reading these "Best of BeeLine" posts the first time around, here's another opportunity to get to "the shortest route to what you need to know" to start 2021 off right. You might also consider forwarding this post to several friends who might appreciate a blog that tries to put some of the complicated issues of the day in context.

I don't actively promote or advertise this blog. New readers almost always come from one of you passing it along to someone else.

If you enjoy BeeLine, please pass a recommendation on to your friends and family. I enjoy writing it but it is a lot easier to sit down, research and write when I know more are reading what I write.

If you want to make sure you don't miss a post, consider putting yourself on the BeeLine email list. You will receive an email of the blog whenever I put up another post. 

You can sign up in the upper right hand corner on the web page. You need to be viewing the web version to do this as this feature does not show up on your phone. You will receive a follow-up email (from Follow.it) that you will need to confirm to begin delivery.

Thank you to all my loyal BeeLine readers and a Happy New Year to each one of you!

The Best of BeeLine-2021

Most Popular Based on Views

Nothing Is Under Control Except You    July 29, 2021

"...it is becoming increasingly clear that Joe Biden, Anthony Fauci and the CDC do not have anything under control with Covid right now. The data shows that Covid is under less control today than it was a year ago when Trump was their target.

Unfortunately, their only answer to everything involving Covid is to try to enforce more control over your life and everyone else."

The Fog of the Covid War    July 22, 2021

"I will go where the data takes me.

I will not blindly follow "the narrative".

The most troubling aspect of everything we have seen the last 18 months is the unwillingness of our political and public health establishment to do the same.

Why are they afraid of being transparent with the data?

Why do they feel compelled to silence any contrary views?

Why aren't they humble enough to simply admit there are many things they don't know about the virus, its origins and the vaccines?

I don't know the answers to the questions I have posed. There are too many moving parts. We are in the midst of the fog of war when battling this pandemic.

The fog will lift at some point. The data will reveal the truth.

Let us pray that those who are pushing the narrative are on the right side of that truth."

Pandemic of the Vaccinated?    December 17, 2021

"Are we in a pandemic of the vaccinated?

That might be going too far right now.

However, it is hard for anyone to call this a pandemic of the unvaccinated any more.

The data simply does not lie if anyone is willing to open their eyes."

Are You Going to Get the Vaccine?    January 17, 2021

"The only thing I know for sure is that the media and the "experts" have painted the most negative and dangerous narrative they could involving Covid-19. They are also portraying the vaccines in the most positive light they can.

Neither narrative should be trusted. The risks of Covid to most people is a much smaller than most are led to believe. At the same time, the benefits of the vaccine are much less and there also can be real risks attached to these vaccines that should not be overlooked.

The truth undoubtedly lies somewhere in the middle but it is next to impossible for the average person to decipher what it is."

"The biggest misconception I see in people regarding the vaccine is that they believe it will prevent them from being infected with Covid or if loved ones are vaccinated it will prevent the transmission of the virus to them. This would seem to be an obvious assumption and a primary reason to get the vaccine.

Incredibly, there is no evidence that any of the Covid vaccines will prevent transmission of the virus.

As I wrote when these vaccines were under development, that was never a stated objective or goal of the vaccines. They merely were intended to minimize the symptoms if you get the infection."

Spikes Everywhere You Look    August 17, 2021

"Spikes everywhere you look even though vaccinations are also up everywhere you look.

However, we are told the answer is to vaccinate more people and give booster shots to everyone who has already been vaccinated.

This is the case even though we have no answer as to why all of these spikes in cases are occurring around the world as vaccinations have increased.

This makes no sense whatsoever from a scientific perspective.

Between last year and this year what is the one intervention that was introduced that we did not have last year?

Vaccinations.

The hypothesis from the experts was that this would be our way out of the pandemic. It would prevent disease and stop transmission. 

Considering that there are spikes everywhere you look, wouldn't the scientific method suggest that you should test your hypothesis that vaccines are the answer by looking at the data and investigating why we are seeing these spikes?

That would be science.

Sadly, science is no longer science. It has become politics disguised as science.

Or public health experts that are so invested in the narrative and their reputations that they care more about both of these before the science and your health."

A Few Personal Favorites

What Are You Concerned About    February 25, 2021

Democrats believe that Donald Trump's supporters are a bigger problem for the country than anything but the spread of Covid-19?

Trump's supporters are a bigger problem than the economic damage of Covid 19, Covid-19 school closures, health care coverage and costs, Social Security and Medicare, illegal immigration, high taxes, unemployment, budget deficits and the national debt, China, Russia, Islamic terrorism, income inequality, student debt, abortion rights, climate change, gun violence or anything else?

The divide is quite remarkable.

It also tells us a lot about how Joe Biden is likely to govern.

You can expect him to continue to push strong measures against Covid that include mandatory masking, lockdowns and school closures (and even mandatory vaccinations if they cannot get the voluntary acceptance percentage that they want) since stopping the spread of Covid is the top concern among Democrats.

Biden will also continue to attack Trump and his supporters despite his calls for "unity". There will be more calls to censor conservative voices or speech that does not conform to the Democrat narrative on Covid, immigration, election fraud and other liberal hot button issues."

ID Idiocy   March 28, 2021

"In what universe does it make sense to require an ID when a living, breathing individual shows up to vote in person but nothing is required for an anonymous mailed-in absentee ballot that could be voted by anyone randomly?"

"Do they really think it is more crucial to have a photo id to pick up baseball tickets than it is to protect the integrity of the vote?

Of course, we all know how many other instances it is required that you must produce a photo id in our society today.

You have to do it to board an airplane, cash a check, buy alcohol or get a hotel room for the night to name a few. I have to show mine when I go to the doctor.

It might be worth noting here that the same people who think it is not necessary for anyone to have to produce an ID to vote will also most assuredly be the same ones who will soon be arguing that it is absolutely required to have a "vaccine passport" if you want to travel, attend a sporting or entertainment venue, shop, or do anything else outside your home."

Inflation In Our Future?    May 23, 2021 

"Many people in the United States have not experienced significant, sustained, across the board inflation.

It has been 40 years since we last saw double-digit annual inflation. For most of the last 30 years consumer prices have averaged about 2.5% per year.

Is this about to change?

There are troubling signs on the horizon."

Sinking Fast?    July 27, 2021

"Storm clouds are already gathering on the horizon that could result in Biden's approval rating sinking fast.

Biden has a 63% approval for his handling of the Covid response. Cases are rising and there is increasing talk of reimposed mandates, booster shots and other measures. What happens to that approval number if cases numbers continue to rise?

55% approve of his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. The Taliban is already capturing large swaths of the country. What if Afghanistan is overtaken by turmoil and terrorists?

53% feel positive about the economic recovery. However, inflation risk seems to be everywhere. Biden and his advisors are saying this is temporary. What if it is not?"

We Should Know A Lot More in Three Months  November 18, 2021

"The sad fact also is that Covid deaths in 2021 are higher overall than in 2020. Where is there any proof that the vaccines actually reduced deaths? We are told that it would have been much worse without the vaccines. How does anyone know? How can anyone prove that?

What are we going to see in the critical period coming up?

Is the vaccine or the virus going to win? Almost everything is being wagered on the vaccines. 

However, if the cases continue to climb at the same time that vaccine doses are multiplying, is there anyone with enough integrity to admit the obvious?

I would like nothing better than to find that my instincts on this were wrong from the beginning.

I had hoped to see data on something that proved to be overwhelming as a means to control Covid---masks, lockdowns or vaccines. Anything.

I have yet to see it.

A true test lies ahead as the winter season approaches.

We should know a lot more in three months.

Will it make any difference?"

As the year winds down I have traditionally posted some of the best pictures I have taken with my iPhone during the year.

In the past this included pictures I took on my travels around the world.

There are no pictures from Santorini, Shanghai, Sydney or Stonehenge this year as in the past.

Nor photos from Bora Bora. Bermuda or even Boise.

Like most everyone else, BeeLine has spent much of the year closer to home.

However, I still was able to capture a few images to document the year.

Below are a few of the sights that I found on my handy iPhone in reviewing 2021.

We still are bombarded with a lot of disheartening and discouraging news almost every day but we are also blessed to live in a beautiful and beguiling world if we stop and look around.

A few examples that underscore that point.

Sunrise Hilton Head Island, SC

Sunrise Miramar Beach, FL

The Most Beautiful Beach in the World? Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort, FL

Sky, Sea and Sand Miramar Beach, FL

Seaside, FL

Dahlonega Gold Museum Dahlonega, GA

18th Hole, Hawks Ridge Golf Club Ball Ground, GA

Bald Eagle Cincinnati, OH Zoo

Falls Park Greenville, SC.

Sky Valley, GA On the border of Georgia and North Carolina

America's Heartland Fort Recovery, OH

Read your BeeLine blog while having a brew at BEELINE Easton Town Center, Columbus, OH

Looking at the data it is difficult not to wonder whether the Covid vaccine booster shots are fueling the surge of Omicron variant cases.

Last week I wrote about the surge of Omicron cases that has made the Covid daily case graphs look like a rocket launch.

That trend continues and my prediction in that blog post that Florida would also soon see the Omicron surge has also come true.

Cases are up 4x in Florida in the last seven days.

7-day average of new reported cases in Florida Source: The New York Times

It is sure to go much higher, as it will elsewhere, as there is undoubtedly a lag in reporting right now due to Christmas.

What is telling about the numbers from Florida is that the case growth is strongest in the counties that are the most heavily vaccinated. These are also counties in which booster uptake is the highest.

There is little doubt that the higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant makes those in urban settings more vulnerable than less populated counties. However, the case growth numbers in Miami-Dade county (80% fully vaccinated) are eye-popping. Cases are up +1,873% in the last 14 days.

Here are the leading counties in Florida based on daily cases per capita.

All are at or above the full vaccination rate for Florida as well as the United States at large.

Reported Florida cases, deaths and trends by county Source: The New York Times

This heat map of Florida shows how much of the case incidence in the state is coming from the populous and highly vaccinated counties on the southeast coast of Florida.

Hot Spots for Cases in Florida Source: New York Times

What makes this especially interesting is that this would not normally be considered to be the "high season" for viral spread in a warm weather climate. Most of the seasonal viral spread we see at this time of year is usually in cold weather climates.

We are seeing the same thing in Hawaii--another warm weather climate. Hawaii also has a higher vaccination rate than the national average. 95% of all those age 12+ have received at least one dose.

The Omicron Rocket has really taken off there in the last two weeks. Cases are up +964%.

Compare cases now to December of last year when there was hardly a blip in case with almost no vaccines deployed at that time.

7-day average of new reported cases in Hawaii Source: New York Times

San Francisco (like Miami-Dade) has 80% of every man, woman and child fully vaccinated. 

It just set a new record of cases despite having some of the most stringent mask and vaccine mandate rules in the country.

7-day average of new reported cases in San Francisco Source: New York Times

78% are fully vaccinated in Australia and that nation also has some of the most draconian Covid mandate rules in the world outside of Communist China.

None of those measures has prevented the Omicron Rocket in Australia.

7-day average of new reported cases in Australia Source: New York Times

Bear in mind that the case counts above don't consider any cases identified in home test kits. These home tests are much more available this year than they were a year ago.

At what point does someone step up and state the obvious?

Something is not working here.

What would have been the reaction if we had seen similar case curves a year after the smallpox and polio vaccines were introduced? 

Would we say these vaccines were working?

I am also tired of the revisionist history where we keep hearing that "no one ever said the vaccines were going to prevent Covid infections".

The fact is that almost every one of the experts said exactly that.

In fact, this was tweeted out by Pfizer the day that the first vaccines doses left their plant in Kalamazoo, MI.

In the last week I know of three friends or acquaintances who came down with Covid who were fully vaccinated and boosted recently.

Yes, it is anecdotal evidence. However, when you also consider the charts above it does not look so anecdotal.

In that the case surge seems the greatest in areas that have the highest vaccination rates, is anyone asking the question whether the vaccines may actually make people more vulnerable to the virus right now?

Washington, D.C (67% fully vaccinated), New York (71%), New Jersey (70%) and Puerto Rico (72%) all have case numbers right now that are more than double what they were last year at the top of the winter peak. 

Source: The New York Times

These are the top locations for Covid cases in the nation right now.

Dr. Tony Fauci is certainly not asking any questions.

In fact, Fauci is telling people to not gather for New Year's Eve parties this year.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-new-years-parties-omicron-cancel

Why? Is it because the virus is raging through places like DC, New York and New Jersey with twice the cases of last year despite high vaccination rates? 

No. Fauci says it is because you don't know the status of who is vaccinated in large groups.

Does he seriously believe that makes any difference right now?

"I have been telling people consistently that if you're vaccinated and boosted and you have a family setting, in the home with family and relatives," it's OK to gather, Fauci continued. "But when you're talking about a New Year's Eve party, we have 30, 40, 50 people celebrating. You do not know the status of their vaccination, I would recommend strongly stay away from that this year."

Does this guy ever look at the actual data? Fauci is still trying to blame this on those who are unvaccinated when the truth is staring him right in the eyes.

It is simply impossible to have the explosion of cases we are seeing in highly vaccinated areas without most of the transmission coming from those who are fully vaccinated.

Are the vaccines and booster fueling the Omicron Rocket?

There is some evidence of that in studies in the UK and Denmark.

A UK study suggests that someone who is triple-vaccinated is more than four times as likely to test positive for Omicron as someone who is unvaccinated.

This study was tweeted out by Dr. Robert Malone who is credited with inventing the mRNA technology over 30 years ago that has been used to develop the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

A study out of Denmark indicated that the unvaccinated actually had the lowest cases per capita of Omicron.

Those fully vaccinated had the highest per capita cases.

Source: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigenic-in-denmark

An analyst that I follow calculated that being double vaccinated more than doubles your risk of contracting Omicron based on the data in the Denmark study.

A booster on top of the two shots would reduce your risk but it is still 75% higher than not being vaccinated at all according to the analyst's calculation of vaccine efficacy,

Source: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigenic-in-denmark

Below is a chart taken directly from the Denmark study.

Note that the study does not even include any vaccine utility in the first two weeks after the second shots. 

Vaccine efficacy is not considered until two weeks after the second shots.

Between 31-60 days after two shots, Pfizer was found to have only 16% efficacy against Omicron. That drops to 10% after 60 days. After 90 days, it is substantially negative meaning you are more likely to get the virus when vaccinated compared to doing nothing.

Moderna is a little better but the vaccine is still without value against Omicron after 60 days and also has negative efficacy after 90 days.

(Click on to enlarge this or any other image).

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v3.full.pdf

This graph form the study displays the same data which might be easier to comprehend.

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v3.full.pdf

This study indicates that someone would need to get a booster practically every other month to maintain any kind of vaccine protection against Omicron.

That also does not consider the fact that in the first two weeks after any shot you may actually be suppressing your natural immune system until the vaccinal antibodies build up. However, this data suggests that protection never gets that robust to begin with and then quickly decreases until vaccine efficacy is actually negative after 90 days.

Bear in mind this is early data and may be superseded by better information as we learn more about Omicron and how the variant responds to the vaccines.

However, shouldn't there be more questions being asked before we tell more and more people to get more and more jabs?

This is particularly true as we see cases in South Africa falling as quickly right now as they took off originally in the nation that first identified the Omicron variant.

Notice that the declines in Covid cases almost always mirror the trajectory of the increases in any graph you look at.

Have Omicron cases come down in South Africa because of more vaccinations?

South Africa has actually been doing fewer vaccinations in December than they have in previous months.

South Africa has also vaccinated a much smaller percentage of its population than other heavily vaccinated countries that are seeing massive spikes in cases right now.

Contrast the daily confirmed cases in these heavily vaccinated countries (Portugal, Spain, Denmark, UK, USA) compared to South Africa.

South Africa has about 25% its population fully vaccinated. All of the other countries are over 60%.

Here are the confirmed cases in the same countries.

All of the heavily vaccinated countries in this chart are still heading up on the Omicron Rocket.

South Africa is already heading down.

Looking at South Africa, might it be better to actually consider reducing the vaccination effort in the middle of the pandemic?

Are the vaccines and the boosters actually fueling the Omicron Rocket right now?

Are the increasing number of variants being caused by the vaccines?

I don't know but someone above my pay grade should be asking these questions.

However, the two guys at the highest pay grades in the United States government (Fauci and Biden) are not asking any questions even as the Covid battle has changed. They just keep doubling down irrespective of the facts and data that confront us.

As stated above, Fauci is still looking for unvaccinated people to blame.

Biden stated today that there is no federal solution to Covid. He has now declared that it is a state level issue.

Does that mean all of his federal mandates are null and void?

Never mind that Biden spent all of last year's campaign saying Covid had to be addressed as a federal issue and that Trump should be removed because he had no plan to deal with it.

At this point, I have no more words. It would be comical if it was not so serious. We are two years into this and those in charge don't have the slightest idea of what they are doing.

The good news is that hospitalizations are not moving up as fast as cases are. 

If it stays like this we might have a chance to build up herd immunity with this surge of cases, that we did not get from the vaccines, without overwhelming hospitals and seeing rising deaths.

However, Covid is always a numbers game. If we see double the cases, even if Omicron is half as serious as Delta, that still means the same hospitalizations and deaths are possible just based on the sheer number of total infections.

This is why having vaccines that do not provide sterilizing immunity, and do not prevent the disease and  transmission (as the smallpox, polio and most other vaccines we are familiar with), are such a disappointing failure no matter how much the experts try to convince us otherwise. 

Joe Biden spent most of his 2020 campaign sitting in his basement telling everyone that Donald Trump had no plan to stop Covid.

He said this in the first debate with Trump at the end of September.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/joe-biden-says-donald-trump-has-no-plan-to-tackle-coronavirus/story-2phN20iJCuyDw0vRsCP0oM.html

Biden said this at the end of October.

When Biden took office on January 20, 2021 he unveiled his Covid plan that he said was "comprehensive". "detailed" and "based on science not politics."

"Our national strategy is comprehensive, it's based on science, not politics. It's based on truth, not denial, and it's detailed," Biden said, speaking from the White House. He said the 198-page plan is posted on WhiteHouse.gov.

Who is in denial right now?

Biden was asked in an ABC News interview this week why he did not have a better plan to deal with the Delta and Omicron variants and how he and his experts could have gotten things so wrong.

Biden's response is the height of denial.

"How did we get it wrong?" he responded. "Nobody saw it coming. Nobody in the whole world. Who saw it coming?"

Biden says nobody in the whole world saw it coming. 

That's interesting because I was writing about the Delta variant in India and the UK in April.

The National Institute of Health, which counts Dr. Tony Fauci as one of its employees, wrote this about the Delta variant in July mentioning that the WHO had designated it a variant of concern (VOC) in July, 2021 before the summer surge in the Sun Belt.

Let's take a step back and determine who should have seen any of this coming.

Donald Trump was totally blindsided by Covid. So was Fauci and the CDC.

Recall that Fauci did not want to cut off travel from China in January, 2020. Trump did it anyway.

Fauci was saying as late as the end of February, 2020 that the risk of Covid was "minuscule".

At that time Fauci was actually advising people to take precautions against a second flu outbreak of the season rather than Covid! This is our "expert".

 

Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule." But he does want them to take precautions against the influenza outbreak, which is having its second wave."

The CDC had no approved tests for Covid when the pandemic first started. They were totally unprepared and the lack of approved tests was a major roadblock early.

There was also little personal protective equipment (masks, gloves etc) stockpiled in the national readiness reserve when the pandemic started. Obama/Biden had not seen fit to fund the emergency reserve during their tenure in office.

Despite almost no notice Trump ramped up tests, test sites, PPE and fast-tracked the vaccine effort.

Almost nothing was known about the lethality of the virus at the beginning. 

Recall those videos from China early in the pandemic of people walking down the street and suddenly collapsing and EMT crews in hazmat suits picking them up? How many times have we seen that outside of China? Looking back now do you think those might have been staged by the CCP to sow fear to the rest of the world?  

We knew nothing about the seasonality of the virus in early 2020.

Trump started from almost ZERO.

Contrast that with Biden.

The pandemic had been ongoing for a year when he took office.

Vaccines were already on the market and being distributed.

We knew who was vulnerable and who was at little risk.

PPE supplies were in ample supply.

Testing centers were available everywhere and at-home antigen kits had been developed for ease of use.

We knew that Covid had strong seasonal patterns so it should be easy to predict where the next outbreaks would occur by looking at the prior year cases and hospitalizations.

All of the heavy lifting had been done.

Despite all of the disadvantages that Trump faced, and the advantages that Biden had, Biden is presiding over a colossal failure in his plan for Covid.

2021 has already seen more cases and deaths than 2020.

We are now seeing a surge of cases unlike anything we have seen in two years of the pandemic.

There were almost 34,000 new Covid cases in New York yesterday. That is already more than double the peak in last winter's surge.

New Reported Cases in New York Source: The New York Times

As I wrote in my last blog post, the line on the graph looks like an Omicron Rocket taking off.

Ironically, the greatest surge is in the city where Joe Biden and his Covid brain trust reside---Washington, D.C.

It now has the highest per capita number of cases in the United States. 

+541% in the last two weeks.

Almost 4x higher than the previous peak in that city.

New Reported Cases in Washington, D.C. Source: The New York Times

Here are the other states at the top of the list for highest daily average case counts per The New York Times as of December 22, 2021.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

These are all deep-blue Democrat states that were "all-in" on Biden's Covid plan for 2021. Most have relied on mask mandates, lockdowns and vaccine mandates all along.

How is this anything but a colossal failure?

Biden's new plan is telling the American people he is providing 500 million new home test kits that can be ordered for free through a government website.

Never mind that the order had not even been placed when he said this according to reporting by The New York Times.

"Mr. Biden’s administration has not yet signed a contract to buy the tests, and the website to order them will not be up until January. Officials have not said how many tests people will be able to order or how quickly they will be shipped once they begin to be available next month. Manufacturers say they are already producing tests as fast as they can.”

If manufacturers are already producing tests as fast as they can it will interesting to see where Biden gets 500 million new tests in January as he is promising. Does he have a call into the Chinese?

Never mind as well that the website will not even be up until January. Will cases be headed down by then anyway?

In the meantime, the Biden plan is to tell people they can get together for Christmas but they should test themselves (vaccinated or not) before meeting with family and friends.

However, there are almost no home test kits to be found anywhere right now.

And in many places, including New York City and Washington, D.C., lines stretch around the block for people waiting to get PCR tests.

Joe Biden was given every advantage and a huge head start in implementing his Covid plan compared to Donald Trump.

To use a sports analogy, Biden had a 50 yard advantage in a 100 yard race and he has tripped over his own feet 25 yards from the finish line.

Yes, Joe Biden has fallen and can't get up!

(The following graphic meme proves you can literally find anything your imagination dreams up on the internet!)

Credit: https://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/joe-biden-memes/86222273/

Whatever Covid plan he had is a colossal failure right now.

In fact, an expert on testing trends at Johns Hopkins says Biden does not have a plan, it's only a hope.

Source: https://nypost.com/2021/12/23/biden-has-yet-to-sign-contracts-for-promised-500m-at-home-covid-tests/

  

It seems that Biden still thinks he is an era when you don't have to deliver results, you just have to promise HOPE and CHANGE.

Where did he learn that?

----------------------------------------------------

Merry Christmas to all of my BeeLine readers.

The true meaning of Christmas is that there really is hope for all of us no matter how dark the night sky.

For He arrived in a manger in a stable in Bethlehem.

Dr. David Goetsch wrote about the hope that followed to those that follow Him.

Credit: https://www.david-goetsch.com/post/a-christmas-message-because-he-lives-we-have-hope-even-in-our-darkest-hours-psalm-119-114

I have found it interesting that some of the Covid variants share names with rockets.

ALPHA rocket launch Source: https://orbitaltoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/rocket-launch-2-2048x1183.jpg

Delta Rocket Source: https://spacecoastlaunches.com/blog/apollos-50th-aniversary-a-look-at-the-evolution-of-rockets/attachment/delta-rocket/

Gamma Rocket Source: https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2019/spectrum-x-gamma-rockets-into-space-with-x-ray-vision.html

Omicron would also seem to be a good name if anyone is in the "rocket naming" business. A quick Google search indicates that name has not been claimed for a rocket yet.

However, that name would seem very appropriate for a rocket in seeing how the cases of Omicron are rising like a rocket in various parts of the United States right now.

I pointed out in my last blog post that New York was sure to hit a new 7-day average all-time high in new Covid cases in the next day or so. 

They have attained that dubious record.

The 7-day average is now 19,420 cases/day. That is 17% higher than the previous high on January 12, 2021.

The surge over the last ten days looks like a rocket launch in New York.

7-Day Average of New Cases in New York State Source: The New York Times

It should be no surprise that New York City is driving part of this surge considering its population. However, New York City has some of the strictest vaccine passport and mandate rules in the country, not to mention mask usage.

Cases are 60% higher than the previous peak in January. 

Cases are up +342% in the last two weeks.

How is this happening?

7-Day Average of New Cases in New York City Source: The New York Times

In upstate New York, Cornell University had over 2,000 new Covid cases among its 97% vaccinated student body in just two weeks.

One of the big reasons that cases declined was the students were sent home after completing final exams on December 17.

Cases have also soared in New Jersey. It is also at an all-time high.

7-Day Average of New Cases in New Jersey Source: The New York Times

The surge in cases in Washington, D.C. is so steep, if this was a rocket ship, the G-forces to the crew would be unbearable. 

This looks to be a straight vertical ascent. It is also unbearable to look at this after all that we have been told about the effectiveness of the vaccines, masks, etc.

Cases are 3x greater than they have been at any time since the beginning of the pandemic!

7-Day Average of New Cases in Washington, D.C. Source; The New York Times

This graph shows you how Washington, D.C. compares to the rest of the United States right now and over the course of the pandemic.

Source: The New York Time

It was a few months ago that I heard that Trump voters were the reason that we were not able to put an end to the pandemic. They wouldn't wear masks and were not getting vaccinated as quickly as they should.

What percentage of votes did Donald Trump receive in the last election in Washington, D.C?

Trump got a grand total of 5% of the total vote in D.C. when he opposed Joe Biden.

Is the rise in cases now the fault of Biden voters? 

Every location cited above also has among the highest vaccinated rates in the nation as well as strong masking requirements.

Nantucket, MA had the highest case rate increase of any county in the United States earlier this week.

Cases were up 1,414% in the 14 days ending 12/20 despite 94% of every man, woman and child being vaccinated on Nantucket according to The New York Times.

You can see the meteoric rise in Omicron cases across the nation in this CDC chart that shows the variants in circulation. Omicron went from less than 1% of all Covid cases to 73% in two weeks! Omicron went from 12% to 73% in one week!

Delta is represented by the gold bars. Omicron by the purple.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

The rocket ship rise in cases is not confined to the 50 states.

Look at what is happening in Puerto Rico.

84% of everyone age 12+ is fully vaccinated in Puerto Rico.

7-day Average of New Cases in Puerto Rico Source: The New York Times

What is interesting about Puerto Rico is this surge is occurring in a warmer climate.

These other surges are in colder climes.

Puerto Rico already had a summer surge at the same time as the Sun Belt states did. This is not a cold season seasonal surge. It is something else. What is going on?

This makes me wonder what we are going to see in Florida over the next several weeks

It appears to be in the early stages of an ascent. 

7-day Average of New Cases in Florida Source: The New York Times

Let's call it a first stage. Are a second and third stage coming that will make this another Omicron rocket ship vertical ascent?

It looks like it might be shaping up that way especially considering what we have already seen in Puerto Rico.

How can anyone look at all of data above and make the case that the vaccines are in any way even marginally protective?

How can anyone look at this data and and say we need to keep doing more of something that is not delivering anywhere close to what was promised at the beginning?

Right now we are like a gambler who insists on doubling down on his bets and keeps on losing and losing.

In looking at the data, I am concerned that the boosters may actually be feeding the pandemic in that we are seeing many of these rocket ship ascents in areas with high vaccine rates and booster uptakes.

In looking at the data from when the vaccines were first introduced, there seems to be a trend where the vaccines may actually make you more susceptible to the virus in the first several weeks after the jab. Your natural immune response is suppressed while waiting for the vaccine antibodies to be produced.

If you think this is crazy, look at another Omicron Rocket in the U.K.

Cases are now 46% higher than previous peak in January.

Cases are up 83% in just the last two weeks.

Now look at this tweet from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson from yesterday.

It is astonishing.

Is it a coincidence?

The CDC has never acknowledged that vaccines may initially suppress your natural immunity but remember the CDC does not consider anyone to be vaccinated (or fully vaccinated) until two weeks after the shot. This definition was not arrived at by chance.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/second-shot.html

My guess is that they saw the numbers and did not want the two-week period when natural immunity might be suppressed to be counted and used against the vaccine narrative.

You might want to consider this information and decide for yourself whether it is good idea to get jabbed at a time when cases are rising and the virus is raging in your area. You may actually make yourself more vulnerable to the virus in the short-term.

The rocket is also visible in Australia which has had some of the strictest Covid measures in the world over the last two years. 76% are fully vaccinated.

It is also visible in Canada which won't let anyone who has barred the unvaccinated in participating in most aspects of society. 77% are fully vaccinated.

The good news is that every surge in cases in the past has been followed by a decrease at about the same rate. There are early signs that is already starting to occur in South Africa where Omicron was first identified.

If that past trend follows, cases we are seeing on these rocket ship ascents will crash at a similar rate.

The hope would also be that these infections will not lead to increased hospitalizations and deaths.

Further, a best case scenario is that these infections will confer broader based and longer lasting immunity to the population than have been provided by the vaccines despite what was promised a year ago when they were introduced.

I know you are not getting this data and these perspectives in the narratives you hear in the mainstream media and the major social media channels.

However, how can you look at the data and facts that surround us right now and come to any other conclusion if you apply a little critical thinking?

There is something wrong with what you have been told.

In the meantime, strap in as the Omicron Rocket has taken off. We are in this together and you should understand by now that the "experts" do not have all the answers no matter how much they want you to believe otherwise.

Be particularly careful if you are in an area that is seeing these vertical spikes in cases. It doesn't matter if you are vaccinated or not.

We can all only hope and pray for a safe landing after the rough ride we look to be embarking on with the Omicron Rocket in the coming days.

Joe Biden is scheduled to address the nation about Covid today.

You may recall that at this time last year Biden was warning us of a "very dark winter" ahead.

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-11-09/biden-warns-of-very-dark-winter-as-us-approaches-10-million-coronavirus-cases

For context, there have been an additional 40 million cases of Covid since Biden said this last year.

There have been 100,000 additional deaths in 2021 from Covid over the  352,000 we had in 2020.

This is the latest CDC snapshot of cases, deaths and vaccinations.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends

Biden was also saying that he was going to shut down the virus.

When he took office has said he had a 100 day plan that was based on science. It involved getting people vaccinated, mandating masks for 100 days wherever he could, and increased testing

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-national-coronavirus-plan/index.html

As cases dropped during the Spring, Biden and his advisors must have believed that they really had accomplished something.

Biden attacked the Governors in a number of southern states that were not following the lockdown measures and were lifting mask mandates, saying they were "neanderthals" in their thinking about Covid.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56275103

In the hot summer months, he attacked Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and other Republican governors when cases surged in a seasonal summer peak which we had also seen last year in the Sun Belt states.

Biden said what they were doing was bad health policy.

“I believe the results of their decisions are not good for their constituents,” Biden said, according to a transcript released by the White House. “And it's clear to me and to most of the medical experts that the decisions being made, like not allowing mask mandates in school and the like, are bad health policy —- bad health policy.” 

“We are having schools open. We are protecting every Floridian’s job in this state. We are protecting peoples’ small businesses,” DeSantis said. “These interventions have failed time and time again throughout this pandemic, not just in the United States, but abroad. They have not stopped the spread, And particularly with delta that is even more transmissible. It if didn’t stop it before, it definitely ain’t going to stop it now. I think it’s very important we understand that.” 

Florida had a tough period but it never got as bad as predicted.

Biden's experts like Fauci predicted cases would explode when school opened.

Cases actually starting falling in mid-August when most school districts in Florida were starting the Fall semester.

New Reported Cases in Florida Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

As pointed out above, there have been many more cases and deaths with Covid since Biden said he was going to shut down the virus than there were before.

This is despite the fact that 77.4% of everyone age 5 and older in the United States has now taken at least one dose of the vaccine based on the most recent CDC data.

30% of those eligible have also taken booster doses.

What is Joe Biden going to say in his Covid address?

I predict we are going to hear again about a "very dark winter" approaching.

How could this be?

Biden told us he was going to lock down the virus.

We were told if you got vaccinated that you would not get sick or spread the virus.

We were told you could take off your mask.

We were told that you would not be hospitalized or die if you were vaccinated.

We were told that 99% of all those in the hospital or dying were unvaccinated.

We were told it was a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

We were told if we got 50% (then 60%, then 70%) vaccinated there would be no further Covid surges.

We were told that we needed to fire healthcare and other workers who were not vaccinated in order to prevent outbreaks from occurring.

We were told that states run by Democrat Governors like Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul were doing it exactly right while Ron DeSantis and other red state Governors were doing everything wrong.

If you have not seen this video montage, I suggest you take a couple of minutes and see snippets of the misinformation and the the totally contradictory messages we have heard this year about the vaccines from the "experts". 

One of the most vaccinated states in the nation is New York.

In New York City you cannot enter any restaurant, building etc. without being fully vaccinated.

The state of New York instituted another indoor mask update December 10.

Have you seen New York's numbers recently?

81% of age 12+ are fully vaccinated.

New York hit a new record high number of daily cases of 28,260 on December 19.  Previously, there have never been more than 20,000 cases in one day in New York since the beginning of the pandemic.

Are we seeing a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" in New York?

This chart shows the 7-day average which is just shy of the record of 16,612 set on January 12 in the last "dark winter" which is certain to be eclipsed in the next day or so.

New Reported Cases in New York Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-covid-cases.html

Here are the top 10 states for new Covid cases (7-day average) as of today according to The New York Times.

Source: The New York Times

9 of the 10 states are headed by Democrat Governors (Ohio the exception). All 9 of these states also voted for Biden.

8 of the 10 states have full vaccination levels higher than the national average of 61% of all residents (Ohio is at 55%. Michigan at 56%).

Notice that all of the states are in colder climates supporting the fact that Covid is a virus that follows very distinct seasonal trends.

Back in early July, when Biden and others were feeling confident that we had largely put Covid behind us, I warned that it was way too early to claim the vaccines were responsible for the decline in cases we had seen from January to June.

This what the trend in cases looked like at that time. It did look like we had put Covid behind us.

However, I wrote at that time that we should wait and see if a seasonal surge occurs in the Sun Belt before anyone takes a victory lap. I was not convinced the decline was due to the vaccines. I was concerned that we were going to see another surge.

This is what I wrote "Where Are We Going With Covid" on July 1, 2021.

The data alone suggest that this drop is not solely due to the vaccines. Most of the decrease had occurred before the vaccines really took hold.

There clearly has also been an effect from herd immunity from those who had existing antibodies and the fact that all viruses eventually burn out.

Although Covid cases have shown a large decline nationally since January I am interested to see what occurs across the Sunbelt in July and August.

We saw cases explode in this area last year after New York, New Jersey and other hot spots saw their cases decline in the summer.

I believe that the cases went up as more people in these hot areas sought the refuge of air conditioning indoors and avoided the sun and outdoors. 

The more I research and study the Covid issue the more it appears to me that locking down and not being out and about actually makes you more vulnerable to the virus.

That surge came in the Sun Belt.

Cases peaked and then they dropped just as quickly as they increased even though most of the Sun Belt states did not order any mask mandates, lockdowns or school closures.

Governor DeSantis of Florida was clear about his policy positions. No lockdowns, no school closures, no mask mandates, no vaccine mandates. 

The cases came down without any overt public policy interventions.

How do you explain it?

They dropped so far that Florida has had the lowest number of new Covid cases of any state for the last several months despite having no mandated restrictions. 

A month ago I wrote that we would know a lot more about the effectiveness of the Biden "plan" and the true effectiveness of the Covid vaccines over the next three months.

I predicted the virus was going to challenge the strict measures of the blue state governors and the effectiveness of the vaccines as the weather turned cold in the Northeast and Midwest.

We would really see how effective Biden's "plan" and the vaccines were in the coming months.

After all, if the vaccines can't control seasonal surges how effective are they?

The vaccines do appear to provide some benefit against severe disease but if the vaccines cannot stop infection or spread we are not putting an end to the pandemic.

We are barely a month in and it couldn't look much worse.

I don't know about you but I have seen more people I know come down with Covid over the last month than at any time during the pandemic. A lot of them are fully vaccinated and boosted. It feels like Covid Chaos right now.

It appears a "very dark winter" is upon us.

What will Joe Biden say today?

I can guarantee you he will once again point his finger at the unvaccinated. It doesn't matter if they already had Covid and recovered. He and his experts have bet everything on the vaccines and they don't want to admit they made a bad bet.

He will likely say again that vaccines should be mandated by employers.

He will urge parents to get their 5-year old vaccinated.

He will tell everyone they should get a booster shot.

He will undoubtedly say that everyone needs to cooperate and comply with the edicts and mandates as there is no other way to get through this. He will say it is your duty as an American.

Of course, there is another way.

A year ago a group of distinguished doctors and epidemiologists came together and put forth what was called "The Great Barrington Declaration". In that document they stated they had grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommended what they called a Focused Protection plan. 

This group was led by esteemed Nobel Prize winner Dr. Martin Kulldorf of Harvard, Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University in the UK and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford.

Their belief is the United States should be following a similar approach to what Sweden has done with Covid. Protect the vulnerable and have others carry on with their lives as close to normal as possible.

Sweden had excess deaths with their strategy early in the pandemic but its strategy is looking pretty smart in 2021 compared to its Scandanavian neighbors, UK, Germany and the United States right now.

When the Covid vaccines first started to be administered one year ago I was rooting for the vaccines to be the way to end the pandemic.

However, I also knew that despite decades of effort, there had never been a successful vaccine targeted at any type of coronavirus.

I was cautious about the use of the new MRNA technology and the abbreviated clinical trial testing period in the development of the vaccines.

I also was concerned about any potential side effects the vaccine might have have that could outweigh the benefits of the vaccine. This was especially true to younger age groups that had shown little serious risk from the virus.

I expected that a lot of my concerns would be laid to rest with the data in the coming months.

The efficacy reported in the trials looks promising and I am rooting for the vaccines to be successful.

However, I also know that there are a lot of people with big bets on this working including Big Pharma, the FDA, the CDC, Dr. Fauci and President Trump.

People with this much to lose usually will go to great lengths to make sure they don't lose. However, that outlook also blinds them from things that they should see.

Most people in that position don't look into the fine print or want to consider negative information.

Was I in the ballpark with that prediction?

I also was concerned that these "vaccines" were not going to be successful at what we expect vaccines to do---prevent disease and stop transmission.

At this point it is not known if the vaccines actually will stop the spread of the virus. All that is known from the trials is that people will not get as sick from Covid as they would without the vaccine.

How does that affect the risk/benefit analysis of the vaccine for you?

Many people took the vaccine based on the implied promise that it would allow them to take their mask off, travel, socialize and not have to worry about being infected with Covid or infecting someone else.

A lot of people took the vaccines because they were told they would be terminated from their jobs or told they could not attend school or participate in sports if they did not comply.

It is a year later.

How has it all worked out?

Cornell University mandated full vaccination for all students, faculty and staff in August.

Cornell has had 1,399 Covid cases among students in the last week alone. This is despite a 97% on-campus vaccination rate and the fact that masks have been worn indoors since August.

Cornell cancelled in-person final exams and are doing the exams virtually. They have told all students to leave campus and go home as soon as their last exam is over. (I guess they want to have the students spread the virus all over the country instead of containing it in Ithaca, NY. Where is Dr. Fauci when you really need him?)

Credit: https://covid.cornell.edu/testing/dashboard/

South Korea has 92% of its adults fully vaccinated.

Cases have exploded in recent weeks to levels not seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

Vaccine doses in South Korea per 100 people= 180.16

Vaccine booster doses in South Korea.

Compare when the booster doses started and the surge in cases. Coincidence?

The NFL has stated that 94.6% of its players are fully vaccinated. 30 of the 32 teams have an overall vaccination rate of 95% or higher.

However, the NFL now has more players and coaches who are in Covid protocols than at any point since the pandemic began.

There are 75 players that have added to the Covid protocol list in the last two days according to The Sporting News.

17 players on Washington.

13 players on Los Angeles.

12 players and the head coach with the Cleveland Browns.

The NBA says that 97% of its players are vaccinated. 60% have had the boosters.

33 of its players were in Covid protocols as of Wednesday.

The Brooklyn Nets had 9 players sidelined.

The Chicago Bulls said 10 players were affected by Covid and unable to play as the reason it postponed two games this week.

In the NHL, the Calgary Flames have had to postpone three games as Covid sweeps through that team. 18 players on the team are in the Covid protocol.

The NHL claims that 99% of its players are vaccinated. It says that only four players in the league are not vaccinated.

Considering the 95%+ vaccination rates involved in all of the examples above, could you not say that we are looking at a pandemic of the vaccinated?

Of course, whether it is the Cornell administrators or the officials of the NFL, NBA or NFL they all quickly state that the vaccines have been proven effective in that no one has been hospitalized or died.

They fail to mention that the same was true last year for the Cornell students and the healthy, young professional athletes before anyone was vaccinated. 

Do we really know if the vaccine actually benefited anyone in these groups?

What about South Korea? Has the vaccine lowered deaths in that country over the last year?

Covid deaths are actually three times higher right now in South Korea than the previous peak. In other words, the vaccines are not preventing infections or deaths in that country based on the data.

If we went back in time to this date last year and I told you everything above would occur despite these high vaccination rates would you believe the vaccines were really effective?

A panel of the CDC's advisors also came out yesterday and recommended that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should not be used except as a last resort when compared to the Pfizer and Moderna shots.

The reason is concern about a rare blood clotting side effect.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson-cdc-blood-clots/

We are a year into the use of this vaccine and it is only now that they provide this guidance?

When I asked the question a year ago today "What's Next With Covid?" I could not have dreamed in my wildest imagination that a year later we would have had more cases and deaths in the United States in 2021 than we had in 2020.

It also would have been incomprehensible that we would be seeing this many cases among vaccinated groups.

In the UK, Covid infections per 100,000 are higher in most age groups that have been vaccinated compared to those who are unvaccinated. The only exceptions are those under age 18 (low vaccination rates to begin with) and those over age 70 (recently boosted).

Credit: https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1471562296581230592/photo/1

The CDC also stated last week that the overwhelming number of cases of Omicron that had been identified to be those who were fully vaccinated. 1/3 were in those who had their booster shot.

Governor Newsom said the same thing yesterday as he was re-instituting a mask mandate for the entire state of California.

Source: https://twitter.com/JohnBrisby3/status/1471665088318824453

How could that be remotely possible if we were deploying what we were told were some of the most effective and miraculous vaccines that had ever been developed?

What explanation is there for any of this?

Dr. Fauci and other experts are quick to blame the Delta or Omicron variants. They act as if no one could have ever predicted this.

However, what is causing the variants to proliferate as they are?

Are we absolutely sure that the vaccines are not causing these variants?

Dr. Fauci claims that the variants are caused by the unvaccinated.

However, French virologist and Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier stated in May that the vaccines would cause more variants.

French virologist and Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier recently called the current COVID-19 mass vaccination programmes an "unacceptable mistake" and "a scientific and medical error". He also said that COVID-19 vaccines were creating more variants.

This is also the view of Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche who has been warning of the dangers of mass vaccination since March. I wrote about his views here.

The thesis by Vanden Bossche is simple.

Mass vaccination in the middle of a pandemic is a prescription for disaster. The vaccinations are going to lead to "viral immune escape" by which the virus will continue to mutate around the Covid vaccines creating more variants that will be increasingly dangerous to mankind.

His thesis is similar to what we hear about the overuse of antibiotics to treat bacterial infections. The more that they are used (or overused) the greater the chance that the bacterial infections will get stronger and eventually evade all antibiotics.

 

Vanden Bossche is anything but an anti-vaxxer. In fact, at one time he was Senior Program Officer with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation working on their global health and vaccine initiatives. He also worked for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) as Senior Ebola Program Manager.

Who is right?

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Wallensky of the CDC?

Or Dr. Montagnier and Dr, Vanden Bossche?

I don't know.

However, the data right now is lining up a lot better with the two doctors with contrary views who are on the outside looking in when it comes to Covid policies.

Are we in a pandemic of the vaccinated?

That might be going too far right now.

However, it is hard for anyone to call this a pandemic of the unvaccinated any more.

The data simply does not lie if anyone is willing to open their eyes.

Last week we learned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had increased 6.8% over the last 12 months.

This week it was revealed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) had increased 9.6% in the 12 months ending in November.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/wholesale-prices-measure-rises-9point6percent-in-november-from-a-year-ago-the-fastest-pace-on-record.html

Producers see price increases before consumers.

Producers also typically pass those increased cost on to consumers.

Do you remember last July when Joe Biden said that the inflation we were seeing was "temporary" and that "no serious economist" was suggesting that prices could spiral out of control?

President Joe Biden said Monday that “no serious economist” is suggesting price increases could spiral out of control, as he sought to reassure Americans that the current spikes are temporary.

Fortunately, I am not a serious economist. 

At the time that Biden was saying that I was pointing to clouds on the horizon regarding inflation. I predicted the high lumber prices we were seeing in the summer would likely come down but the wage inflation that was accelerating would not. 

I also predicted that Biden's approval could soon start sinking fast as he was vulnerable on his planned Afghanistan withdrawal, Covid spiking back up and inflation.

You can see what has happened to Biden's approval rating (Real Clear Politics average) since I wrote "Sinking Fast?" on July 27.

It is almost shocking when you see how fast and furious the increases to PPI have come over the last 12 months.

It is almost as if we have been transformed from another world.

What a difference a year makes!

Let's look at some of the components of the PPI index for different commodity groups.

Overall food goods were +11.6% over the last 12 months.

Beef, grains and cooking oils are all up around 40%.

Energy was +43.6% over the last 12 months.

Of course, these energy cost increases are responsible for much of the inflation in other sectors as the economy runs on energy---for production and transportation in particular.

It is no coincidence that inflation spiked in the United States beginning in January, 2021 when Joe Biden and the Democrats assumed power and started assaulting the fossil fuel industry.

Gasoline and home heating oil are both up over 100%.

Other large increases of interest.

Liquified petroleum gas                           +153.1%

Iron and steel scrap                                   +78.1%

Industrial chemicals                                  +47.9%

Transformers & power regulators           +33.5% 

RVs, trailers & campers retailing            +66.0%

A few categories have actually shown PPI decreases over the last year.

Eggs for fresh use                                      -6.9%

Print advertising                                        -1.0%

Property & casualty insurance                 -0.8%

Annuities                                                     -1.2%

Tax preparation & planning                     -1.9%

One other critical category has also seen a PPI decline over the last 12 months.

Alcoholic beverages                             -0.7%   

Any hope that Biden had that inflation was going to be temporary is gone.

However, your ability to cope with a drink has not been priced out of your reach...YET.

These producer price numbers suggest that the consumer inflation numbers can be expected to continue climbing into 2022.

My advice is stock up while you can on your beverage of choice.

Credit: https://displaymaxinc.com/retail-fixtures/liquor-store-shelving/liquor-wall-shelving/

Joe Biden doesn't want you complaining about any of it. 

After all, he says that inflation is good because it means the economy is great.

If he goes off script he might even utter a phrase* that was once popular when he was a much younger man.

What do you want? Eggs in your beer?

If you have never had an egg in your beer there has probably never been a better time to try it.

Source: https://winning-homebrew.com/egg-in-beer-an-interesting-combo-with-surprising-benefits.html

* Eggs in your beer as a popular phrase.

In the 1940s, the concept of putting eggs in beers turned into a popular, funny phrase people said to each other. “What do you want? Eggs in your beer?”

Right now we are in the midst of a concerted government effort to vaccinate children as young as 5 years of age against Covid.

In March, the White House announced that they were setting aside $1.5 billion to promote the Covid vaccines via television, radio and digital advertising.

You cannot escape those ads. They are everywhere. 

That has been a great deal for the Pharma companies.

Pharma companies spend a lot of money marketing and advertising their drugs. You cannot watch television for more than a few minutes before seeing a drug ad.

They have not had to spend any money marketing the Covid vaccines which have proven to be the biggest money maker that the vaccine developers have ever seen.

Billons and billions of profit have been made from the Covid vaccines.

Since 84.4% of every age 18+ adult has had at least one dose of the vaccines, the focus has now turned to children 5 ages and up to be vaccinated. In addition, they are recommending everyone age 16 and older get the booster.

Let's review the risk that children have from Covid according to CDC data.

There have been far fewer confirmed cases of Covid in children (relative to their share of the population) than any other age group in the United States.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

 

Children under age 18 make up 22.3% of the population but have accounted for 15.7% of the cases.

Those age 18-64 make up 50.3% of the population but account for 71.7% of the cases.

Seniors age 65+ are 14.7% of the population but make up 12.6% of the cases.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Hospitalizations for those under age 18 (the yellow line on the chart below) has been close to zero the entire pandemic. Currently, the hospitalization rate is .26/100,000.

New Admissions of Patients with Covid-19 per 100,000 population Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

The dark purple line at the top of the chart are hospital admissions for those age 70+.

95% of this age group has received at least one dose of the vaccine according to the CDC. 

Deaths of school children are so low they are not even visible on the CDC chart below of Covid deaths by age group.

76.2% of all Covid deaths have been in those age 65+.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

28.2% of Covid deaths have been of those age 85+ despite the fact that this age group makes up just 2% of the U.S. population and 1.9% of the cases.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

You can see from the data above that all of the deaths of children under the age of 18 that have been associated with Covid have not even reached 1,000 to this point.

That is in a population of 74 million children.

Since we are almost two years into the pandemic that puts that one-year risk of a Covid death in this age group to be .000006756.

How do these Covid deaths compare to other causes of death in children?

Below are the leading causes of death for children age 5-14 from 2009-2020 per CDC statistics.

Covid deaths barely make the chart.

What should concern anybody who looks at the data is to see the sharp rise in suicides, drug overdoses and homicides that occurred in 2020.

 In 5-14 year olds?

Source: https://twitter.com/COVIDData3/status/1470433349999251469/photo/1

To put that in even better perspective based on recent current events, Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky reported today the sad news that 12 children were among the 74 killed in the tornadoes that struck that state last Friday night.

That is more children than have died from Covid over the last two years according to the most recent Covid-19 data from Kentucky.

Cumulative Covid deaths in Kentucky by age  Source: https://chfs.ky.gov/agencies/dph/covid19/COVID19DailyReport.pdf

What is more interesting is to look at the actual deaths of children who have died from Covid in the CDC data and see  exactly what some of the underlying facts were in these cases.

These are some of the results you get from making a query on the CDC's Wonder System on other contributing factors involving deaths attributable to Covid.

Drownings. Motor Vehicle accidents. Firearms. Cancers. Heart disease.

These are all "contributing factors" listed with these Covid deaths.

 

Source: https://twitter.com/snorman1776/status/1470450941606473729

I have heard some say that there is not one documented case of an otherwise previously healthy child dying from Covid in the United States thus far. I don't know if that is true but the detailed CDC data would suggest that even the limited reported number of Covid deaths in children may be overstated.

Children 12 and up have been eligible to receive the Pfizer vaccine since May. (Moderna and J&J have still not been authorized for anyone under age 16).

Children 5-11 became eligible for Pfizer on November 2.

If you review the data above, there are very good reasons for someone who is 75 years old to get the Covid vaccine.

It is hard to see any reason for a healthy 5 year old girl or 10 year old boy to do so.

Fortunately, it appears that most parents are not volunteering their children for the vaccinations.

Even though children 12 years of age and older have been eligible for the vaccine for over six months just 52% are fully vaccinated in the age 12-17 age group.

Vaccinations for the 5-11 age group are off to a sluggish start as reported in this Reuters story.

 

Fewer than 20% of U.S. children ages 5 to 11 have gotten at least one shot so far, compared to around 80% of U.S. adults, according to federal data. Of particular concern is that the number of U.S. children getting COVID-19 shots may already be plateauing.

In the past week, more children have been receiving a second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine than a first, according to government data. That suggests a slowdown in demand aside from those who were anxious to get their kids vaccinated at the first opportunity.

Those Reuters reporters seem to be concerned that the number of U.S. children getting the shots may already be plateauing. To me, that is encouraging news. It indicates that many parents still have some critical thinking skills remaining when it comes to assessing benefits and risks for their children.

There have been a scores of bad decisions and poor advice given by our public health experts since the beginning of the pandemic.

In my mind, there is nothing that comes close to the recommendation that children be vaccinated by an experimental vaccine (with unknown long term side effects) to a virus to which they have less risk of serious illness or death than almost anything else you can think of.

ADDENDUM:

If you are a parent and are still not sure whether to vaccinate your children, I would encourage you to research the term "original antigenic sin".

This is how that term is described in a 2019 pre-pandemic article in the Journal of Immunology.

The term “original antigenic sin” (OAS) was first used in the 1960s to describe how one’s first exposure to influenza virus shapes the outcome of subsequent exposures to antigenically related strains. In the decades that have passed, OAS-like responses have been shown to play an integral role in both protection from and susceptibility to infections. OAS may also have an important deterministic role in the differential efficacy of influenza vaccine responses observed for various age cohorts across seasons.

Simply stated, the first flu virus a person is exposed to creates broad-based protection to antigenically related strains during the remainder of their lifetime.

Being exposed to Covid as a child may confer broad protection to related variants during the remainder of their lifetimes.

This has been observed through the generations. This layering seems to be God's plan in which to insure that an entire society will not all be vulnerable to a flu-type virus at the same time. 

Some experts are questioning whether vaccinating children will disrupt this natural order.

Is the Covid vaccine's spike protein too limited in scope to allow the child to develop that layer of broad based immunity they need for their lifetime? 

Will the vaccine end up suppressing their broader immunity for future circulating variants of Covid and other virus strains that will make them much more vulnerable to disease in the future?

I don't know.

The FDA, CDC and Dr. Fauci don't know either. The long-term effects of this vaccines have not been studied long enough. That is true for adults but it is particularly true for children who have their entire lives ahead of them.

Are the vaccines appropriate for children considering the potential unknown long-term risks associated with the vaccines when balanced against the known risks of Covid for children as outlined above?

That is the question every parent needs to weigh carefully.

61% of the total population of the United States is fully vaccinated against Covid according to the latest data from The New York Times.

Seven states have reached full vaccination rates of at least 70% of their entire populations (every man, woman and child).

Vermont                    75%

Rhode Island            75%

Maine                        74%

Connecticut              73%

Massachusetts          73%

West Virginia            71%

New York                  70%

Nine states are at 50% full vaccinated rates or less.

Tennessee                   50%

Arkansas                     50%

Georgia                       50%

North Dakota             50%

Louisiana                   49%

Mississippi                 48%

Alabama                     47%

Wyoming                   46%

Idaho                          46%

How well are the vaccines doing in preventing confirmed cases of Covid right now?

The high vaccination states are averaging 66 cases/day.

The low vaccination states are averaging 22 cases/day.

Cases per capita in the low vaccination states are one-third the level that they are in the high vaccination states.

How is that possible with vaccines that we have been told are supposed to be some of the most effective vaccines ever produced against any disease?

You could look at the states above and make an argument that the seasonality of the virus is working against all of the highly vaccinated states in that they are all in cold weather climes. That is clearly a large factor in case transmission right now.

However, how is it that a "stunningly effective" vaccine is not effective when it matters most---when the virus is circulating most easily?

In addition, North Dakota, Wyoming and Idaho are also in cold weather climes.

The case rates in these states right now are all lower than any of the highly vaccinated states.

North Dakota per capita cases are 40% lower than Rhode Island.

Wyoming is 43% lower than Vermont.

Idaho is 68% lower than Maine.

Yes, but we hear over and over that nobody ever said that the vaccine would prevent anyone from getting Covid. It was only supposed to prevent serious disease.

However, as I have pointed out previously, when the FDA authorized the Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines in December of last year there was no limiting language. 

These vaccines received their emergency use authorization because they were supposed to PREVENT disease. Nothing was stated in the authorization about only preventing severe disease or hospitalizations.

Source: https://www.fda.gov/media/144416/download

Many argue that the vaccine effectiveness should not be measured by the number of cases but the number of hospitalizations.

The vaccines look better on this measure but right now the high vaccination states are still averaging 22 hospitalizations/100,000 per day and the low vaccination states are averaging 16.

However, are we even talking about a vaccine if it does not work to prevent disease and transmission?

If it fails to do that it sounds more like a therapeutic or treatment than a vaccine to me.

Do we give children the measles, mumps or chicken pox vaccine just to keep them from being hospitalized?

Did my parents expect me to get small pox or polio after I took those vaccines as a child? Of course not.

Look at what is happening in Northern Europe right now.

Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Germany have all recently reached higher levels of Covid cases than they have had since the pandemic began.

They also have full vaccination rates much higher than the United States.

This is evidence of effective vaccines?

Even the "experts" have now conceded that there is a fairly rapid decrease in Covid vaccine efficacy such that after 6-8 months there may be minimal protection to Covid from the initial doses.

That is why there has been such a big push for boosters in many countries around the world.

In the United States about 16% of the population has received boosters.

The United Kingdom has doubled that---33% of the population have received boosters.

In Ireland, 22% have been boosted.

How are these countries doing in controlling the virus?

Not very well.

Seeing this makes me wonder if the boosters are somehow initially suppressing natural immunity to the virus in the first few weeks after the jab.

We saw the same thing occur in a number of counties when the vaccines were first introduced and cases spiked right after people started getting their shots. 

The most prominent of these was Vietnam which was almost untouched by Covid for well over a year until that nation started vaccinating.

Is this one of the reasons that the CDC and FDA does not consider anyone to be "vaccinated" or "boosted" until two weeks after the jabs?

Could this mean that we are really worsening the situation by administering boosters in areas of the world where the seasonality pressure from the virus is at its highest?

Does this suggest that if you get the vaccine or booster in an area with high transmission you should be extraordinarily careful for several weeks after?

Look at how booster doses have predominated in Rhode Island (tied with Vermont for most vaccinated state) since the end of September. 

Source: https://ri-department-of-health-covid-19-vaccine-data-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com

Now look at cases in Rhode Island.

Cases started spiking dramatically toward the end of October just as vaccine boosters were being given in large numbers.

New Cases in Rhode Island Source: The New York Times

Is that a coincidence? Is it due to seasonality? Is it due to the waning efficacy of the original vaccine doses? Is the booster somehow interfering with natural immunity?

I could also not help but notice this report over the weekend from Cornell University which instituted a vaccine mandate last August and reports that 97% of all students, faculty and staff are vaccinated.

On Saturday Cornell reported almost 300 new cases of Covid among students in the last two days. They reported another 150 cases on campus the previous three days.

Source: https://covid.cornell.edu/updates/20211211-additional-restrictions.cfm

I wrote about a surge in cases that Cornell was seeing in early September right after those vaccinated students returned to campus. Cornell had 180 cases in the first week of September---3 times what they had in 2020. They now have had 450 cases in less than a week.

All. in-person student gatherings, formal or informal, have been cancelled. Final exams will continue but students have been told to leave campus as soon as exams are completed.

It makes me wonder how many students are listening to Dr. Fauci and getting boosters?

Last week, Pfizer's CEO stated that he believes that a fourth Covid vaccine dose may soon be necessary because of the Omicron variant.

Source: https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/10/we-may-soon-need-a-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose-because-of-the-omicron-outbreak-says-pfizer-c

A top Israeli health official indicated last week that seven booster shots or more may be what is called for.

Dr. Fauci is also weighing in so you know where this is headed.

Vaccines appear to have a particular benefit in protecting vulnerable populations from severe Covid.

However, their value has been vastly oversold.

And the potential negative effects have been vastly underreported and therefore under appreciated by the population at large.

This has resulted in few people properly assessing the risk/benefit calculation regarding the use of the vaccines in a mass vaccination campaign.

It is beyond me how any objective observer can look at the data and conclude that we need to mandate more vaccinations, extend the vaccines to younger and younger children and keep pushing boosters without asking why this has not worked out anywhere CLOSE to what we were told it would?

If the vaccines work, what is going on?

I asked that question three months ago in two consecutive blog posts here and here.

What is going on?

It may be late in the game to figure that out because we shut off all debate and dissenting views a long time ago.

I hope and pray that does not prove to be our undoing in the end.

It is now even later in the game.

And the only answer is do more of something that has resulted in more cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020?

Fauci says we "just have to deal with it".

I just want to know if THEY KNOW what they are doing.

There are currently 4.2 million more job openings in the United States than the number of people unemployed.

Source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1468614253125029898/photo/1

In November there were 6.9 million persons unemployed according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report but there were 11.1 million job openings.

It is yet another indication of how tight the labor market has become in the United States.

There is a reason that you see HELP WANTED signs almost everywhere you go.

Credit: https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=4661371&itype=NGPSID

In fact, have you noticed that a fair number of radio and tv commercials are now advertising for workers rather than customers?

It really is unprecedented in my lifetime.

You can see that there were hints of this problem in the chart above with the strong economy that we had right before the pandemic began in early 2020 but we have entered entirely new territory today.

The tight labor supply market has given workers greater flexibility to change jobs to seek better pay or improve their work situation.

You can see that in this FRED graph that tracks voluntary terminations ("Quits") among private sector employees. 

Quits have never been higher since this data was first tracked.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=JTS1000QUR,#

Quits are highest in the Leisure and Hospitality sectors. There is a reason that you see so many "Help Wanted" signs for restaurants, hotels and the like.

Quits are also up in Retail where you also see a lot of "Help Wanted" signs.

However, you also see an upward trend in the Professional and Business Services sector.

Contrast that with the Government sector. 

No one ever seems to get fired from a Government job. 

It seems that very few quit either. Why is that?

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=JTS7000QUR,JTS9000QUR,JTS4400QUR,JTS540099QUR,#

Today there was a report out that new unemployment claims for last week were the lowest they had been in 52 years.

Predictably, Joe Biden, the Democrats and the media were extolling the news.

Granted, it is a great headline.

However, considering that there are 4.2 million more job openings than there are unemployed is this really a great accomplishment?

I am also trying to figure out what Biden's economic plan is.

The tight labor market has increased wages which has been responsible for a record number of "Quits" as workers look to improve their economic status.

However, due to Federal Reserve policy, unprecedented government spending, and surging oil and gas prices caused by the inane energy policies instituted by Biden, inflation is outpacing wage growth.

The result is that the wage gains that workers are getting are actually putting them in a worse position than they were before.

Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings are up 4.9% but the consumer price index is up 6.2%.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/inflation-has-taken-away-all-the-wage-gains-for-workers-and-then-some.html

Is that also part of the economic plan?

Throughout the Trump years, hourly earnings outpaced inflation as the chart above also shows.

Now take all of the above and layer this on top of all of the other problems we have right now.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/4-day-workweek-congress-progressives/

Source: https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

As it was, it took six years for the 40-hour work week proposal to be enacted after it was first introduced in 1932 at the height of New Deal fervor. It seems that many Progressives at that time were worried about how far the long hand of government should go into private sector issues even when there might be logical and strategic arguments to do so considering the unemployment rate.

That concern clearly no longer exists among Progressives in this country.

If they have a strategic plan it can only be to totally destroy the private enterprise system and the society that has provided the richest economy in the history of mankind.

And they seem to be working overtime to do it.

How many times have you heard that Republicans or conservatives are close-minded, ignorant, authoritarians with no hearts for humanity or souls worthy of living in a shared society?

Democrats and liberals are portrayed as open-minded and inclusive and always motivated by altruism in furtherance of advancing the well-being of others and society in general.

Those are the narratives.

Let's look at how these narrative match up to a recent survey of college students in a new Axios/Generation Lab poll of college students on their attitudes towards those who might have different political views than they have.

Mind you that this is a poll of college students who are literally in the belly of the beast that our education system has become.

A higher education system that is supposed to encourage and foster debate, discussion and dissenting views but seems to have become propaganda factories promoting liberal ideology.

What is most interesting in the poll data is the stark differences in attitudes between students who identify as Democrats vs. Republicans and women vs. men. The poll did not break out party identification by gender but most surveys show a much higher proportion of women who identify as Democrats so take that into consideration as well.

Let's look at questions about whether the college-age survey respondents would associate with someone who voted for the opposing political candidate in the last Presidential election.

Going out on a date--- Shopping or supporting a business---. Being friends with---. Working for--- Someone who voted for the opposing Presidential candidate.

Credit: https://www.axios.com/poll-political-polarization-students-a31e9888-9987-4715-9a2e-b5c448ed3e5a.html

Could there be a starker difference in the attitudes between Democrats and Republicans?

Who is it that is close-minded? 

Who is more likely to not want to engage with someone they might disagree with?

Here are the breakdowns on the same questions posed regarding women vs. men. 

Count me as someone who does not want to be on the wrong side of these women.

Is this another explanation as to why there are so many college-educated women that are single these days? Read my blog post from 2019, "Looking for a Few Good Men". 

There is already an imbalance in college enrollment where females greatly exceed males. If that imbalance is further skewed by women being unwilling to date someone with different political views, that inevitably means that the available pool of acceptable potential mates will become even smaller.

I also found the race/ethnicity questions to be interesting in the poll in that we hear so much today about racism and the "close-minded attitudes" of the white supremacist class in the United States.

Looking at the data in this poll, Whites are not the ones that are the most close-minded and unwilling to associate with those that might have different political attitudes.

In fact, at least in this poll, they are the least likely to not make decisions as to who they will associate with based on political views.

All of this suggests again that the facts often do not support the prevailing narratives we hear.

These views also don't bode well for the future of our country.

If there is so little willingness among those who are the most educated in our next generation of leaders, to engage or associate with others who might have different political views and perspectives, it suggests some very difficult and contentious times are ahead.

Another edition of Monday Meanderings with focus on seasonality and Covid, the November jobs report, inflation and what has happened to the stock price of Beyond Meat.

Seasonality Overwhelms Everything Else With Covid

Over most of the last month Michigan has been leading the nation in new Covid cases. It has now dropped to third behind New Hampshire and Minnesota.

89% of every man, woman and child in New Hampshire has had at least one dose of the vaccines according to The New York Times  

The 7-day average of 1,096 new daily confirmed cases is 24% higher than the previous high that was reached December 13 of last year before vaccines were available.

New Reported Cases in New Hampshire Credit: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-hampshire-covid-cases.html

Hospitalizations with Covid have also hit record levels in New Hampshire.

Hospitalizations with Covid in New Hampshire Credit: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-hampshire-covid-cases.html

This seems to be at odds with the claims that the vaccines prevent severe illness even if they do not prevent someone becoming infected with Covid.

In looking at the New Hampshire data above, you might notice the amazing seasonal congruence of waves of Covid in the state. Daily cases this year are reaching a peak at almost at the same exact time that the peak was reached last year. The same with hospitalizations. It is quite remarkable.

You see this seasonal congruence even more starkly when looking at this HHS graph of Covid hospitalizations in Michigan that compares 2021 vs, 2020.

Credit: https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1467153137752543232/photo/1

The peaks in hospitalizations in the state are falling on almost the same dates in 2021 as they were in 2020.

Doesn't this raise some questions as to whether any of the interventions (masks, lockdowns, vaccines) are making a substantial difference against the nature of the virus?

Jobs and Unemployment

Employment numbers were released last week for November and Joe Biden and the Democrats were attempting to spin the numbers to suggest that we are in the midst of the greatest economic recovery in history.

Biden highlighted the fact that the unemployment number had dropped to 4.2%.

However, the fact is that the economy only produced 210,000 jobs in November. Economists had predicted 550,000 new jobs after 546,000 jobs had been added in October

Even CNN's fact checkers called out Biden for promoting at least four significant false claims he made in his speech on Friday.

When CNN is fact-checking a Democrat you know that the claims are getting pretty outrageous.

A big part of the narrative that Biden and the Democrats have been pushing is that stronger Covid measures (vaccine mandates, mask mandates etc) are what is necessary for a strong economy.

In fact, here is Biden's Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, on Twitter recently challenging a Wall Street Journal reporter who wrote an article stating that the Covid measures in Democrat states were hurting the economy.

What does the data say?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, below are the 10 states with the lowest unemployment rates. (these rates are from October since state breakdowns have not yet been made available for November).

These ten states are averaging 2.7% unemployment.

Every one of these 10 states is led by a Republican governor.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm#laumstrk.f.p

These are the 10 states with the highest unemployment rates.

These 10 states are averaging 6.6% unemployment.

9 of these 10 states are led by a Democrat governor. Alaska is the exception.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm#laumstrk.f.p

Does anyone doubt that the Covid measures are much, much stricter in states with Democrat governors and the highest unemployment rates are in these states?

Biden and Klain appear to be claiming credit for things that they have had nothing to do with and trying to defend mandates which are hurting, rather than helping, the economy.

Never mind the facts. The strategy seems to be to just keep repeating the narrative and hope that people will believe it.

However, it has gotten to the point that even CNN is not buying it.

Inflation

A simple explanation for inflation is that it occurs when there is too much money chasing too few goods.

Demand outpaces supply and this results in prices of goods (or labor) increases.

A few charts that provide context as to why we may be seeing inflation in so many sectors of the economy right now.

The retail sales-to-inventory ratio has never been higher. This indicates there is very little inventory supply supporting what is being sold. Low auto inventories are a big factor in this number but shortages are appearing in a number of sectors.

Not enough supply to meet demand.

Credit: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1465657385821818884

In the meantime, Americans have never seen larger increases in the cash they have in the bank. 

There is a lot of cash awash in the system to push consumer demand.

Credit :https://twitter.com/bpmehlman/status/1466434486971871238/photo/1

The cash in bank accounts does not include another $1.1 trillion that has flowed into the stock market in the last 12 months.

That inflow to equities exceed the combined inflow of the past 19 years!

Source: https://twitter.com/bpmehlman/status/1465652531921670149

The principles of supply and demand also drive stock prices.

A lot of money chasing a limited number of equities to invest in.

That is how you end up with a chart of the S&P 500 that looks like this.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/

American households now have almost $29 trillion invested in U.S. equities. 

Credit: https://twitter.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1465644231809282055

That is double what it was after the initial Covid crash in March, 2020 and almost triple what it was six years ago.

A lot of people must be feeling rich.

Of course, I find it interesting that the $28.6 trillion in household ownership of equities is not even equal to the amount of federal debt right now.

It has just gone over $29 trillion.

Source: https://www.usdebtclock.org

Of course, it is guaranteed that the U.S. national debt is going to be much higher day after day into the future.

The interest on the debt alone assures us of that.

There is no such guarantee that the values of U.S. equities will do the same. What goes up has been known to come down.

Despite all of these facts, the Democrats want to pass legislation to spend another couple of trillion dollars so we can "Build Back Better?

Is what we are seeing right now anywhere close to "better"?

Beyond Meat

In July, 2019 I wrote a blog post about all of the hype going on at the time about "fake meat".

The biggest name in the sector, Beyond Meat, had gone public in May, 2019 and the stock price had advanced 840% in the two months since its IPO. 

I pointed out in "Will You Eat Fake Meat?" that Beyond Meat  had a market cap of $14 billion and had gone up $3.6 billion in the last week alone.

That meant the fake meat company had reached a value that made it more valuable than other food giants like Smucker's, Campbell's Soup and Conagra at its stock price at the time of $235/share.

For perspective, all of these brands are owned by Campbell's.

These are the food brands that Conagra owns.

A company with a meat that is not meat of which the prime ingredient is "pea protein" was valued at more than companies with all of these established brands?

All of this told me that the narrative about Beyond Meat had gotten very far beyond reality.

That ought to give you a perspective on how much money is being bet that you will eat fake meat.

However, will you really eat fake meat?

Count me as someone who is not buying Beyond Meat at $235 per share.

You can also probably count me as someone who is also not going to eat a Beyond Meat burger anytime soon.

Why? My appetite for Fake Meat is about the same as it is for Fake News.