Follow Arms Control Wonk, filter it, and define how you want to receive the news (via Email, RSS, Telegram, WhatsApp etc.) https://follow.it/arms-control-wonk Fri, 31 Mar 2023 11:50:44 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc939XF1O00-wSVLv-B9hV9S2 The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we’re handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with Iran. JCPOA-holdover cameras, discontinuity in footage, and a bunch of …]]> Tue, 21 Mar 2023 22:47:16 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc939XF1O00-wSVLv-B9hV9S2 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90a74bqq-d3KEGT5aWO9DEx New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the next few years are going to …]]> Thu, 09 Mar 2023 03:04:41 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90a74bqq-d3KEGT5aWO9DEx https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc91SkFzty_Z6mn-fx8LWuXng On February 10, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published a statement from Ukraine’s nuclear regulator spelling out that, unless Ukraine has resumed control of the station and safety examinations had been carried out, none of the six power reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) will be permitted to generate electricity: “The State …]]> Sat, 11 Feb 2023 16:58:07 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc91SkFzty_Z6mn-fx8LWuXng https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90L2kW9-T1rSEZPHFZJLI3I Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we’re a little tired of the parades. But we’re glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch.  North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were clearly meant to look like solid-propellent ICBMs. We’ve been down this road before, they’ve …]]> Sat, 11 Feb 2023 00:58:05 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90L2kW9-T1rSEZPHFZJLI3I https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93WN_jXfMCfKJNaYRWadcX6 Last September, six months after Russian forces overran and occupied Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), and less than a month after violence threatening the site had escalated, guarded optimism suddenly broke out concerning the station’s nuclear safety prospects. Relief was at hand, a flurry of media accounts explained, because all six reactors had been idled and …]]> Mon, 06 Feb 2023 21:55:51 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93WN_jXfMCfKJNaYRWadcX6 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93eFAeAnoX9VXKSkciKEY1s Both plan on going first, but… President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea’s nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision …]]> Mon, 16 Jan 2023 23:00:25 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93eFAeAnoX9VXKSkciKEY1s https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92jWiOfkYsHnheIF_fEM9tn Note, this is the second of 2 posts on this subject. You can find part 1 here. Introduction In part 1, we presented new research regarding the Bohu laser facility. That research focused on the history and organisation of the site, demonstrating that it had been operating for longer than previously believed, and that it …]]> Wed, 21 Dec 2022 10:17:30 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92jWiOfkYsHnheIF_fEM9tn https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90w0Nn19JBBJh-xWH3zZqEA Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data.  In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how …]]> Wed, 21 Dec 2022 03:29:48 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90w0Nn19JBBJh-xWH3zZqEA https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92ltyMVs5fuMe-bbeigX9oC For the past 18 months, Jeffrey and I have been conducting research into a Chinese military site near Bosten Lake, more commonly called Bohu, where the PLA Strategic Support force is developing laser capabilities. In the process, we’ve discovered a change of operations that suggests that China has made significant advancements in ASAT laser technology, …]]> Tue, 20 Dec 2022 09:32:48 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92ltyMVs5fuMe-bbeigX9oC https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93KBxjd1ft7qHKSkciKEY1s Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un’s Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute …]]> Sat, 03 Dec 2022 19:04:56 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93KBxjd1ft7qHKSkciKEY1s https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90NYxXnYQetwt5ZnUTwRGH7 The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site …]]> Sun, 13 Nov 2022 16:12:26 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90NYxXnYQetwt5ZnUTwRGH7 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90jPzZ5ry_-q2sGk81fO-bN Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch …]]> Thu, 10 Nov 2022 03:24:42 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90jPzZ5ry_-q2sGk81fO-bN https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92oWgG3Mrw6zgp41t9tiERU The Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about the “nuclear weapons convoy headed towards Ukraine,” don’t help anyone and just add noise to a chaotic narrative.  Jeffrey and …]]> Sun, 23 Oct 2022 00:05:26 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92oWgG3Mrw6zgp41t9tiERU https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc938O530H-dOAwm0QkxGtqLL Does North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile tests and aircraft scramblings. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about missile overflights, what it means to …]]> Tue, 18 Oct 2022 02:42:57 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc938O530H-dOAwm0QkxGtqLL https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92w3T512uL7UhKeetMRuZbW President Vladimir Putin, on the basis of a military invasion and improvised “referenda” widely deplored by many states and the United Nations, declared on September 30 that the Russian Federation will annex four occupied territories in Ukraine. Beginning soon Russia may take steps to impose its authority in these territories, perhaps prioritizing certain matters including …]]> Tue, 11 Oct 2022 18:57:17 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc92w3T512uL7UhKeetMRuZbW https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc900iWyTi99Cs3OFESPuQWsX What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to….steal a power plant? Links of Note: Russia Tries to Steal a Nuclear Power Plant, Cheryl Rofer   …]]> Tue, 30 Aug 2022 02:03:06 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc900iWyTi99Cs3OFESPuQWsX https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc900iWyTi99Cs20dX84dnP8Y Why isn’t North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test?  Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule… The team talks about the impact of Michael Krepon on the field and on …]]> Tue, 30 Aug 2022 02:03:05 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc900iWyTi99Cs20dX84dnP8Y https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc918zUlEy7KF9lhGNgNo2_0q The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an international governmental organization of which both Russia and Ukraine are members, and so it is profoundly challenged by nuclear safety and nuclear security threats unfolding at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Because the crisis at the plant was triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February …]]> Fri, 12 Aug 2022 13:01:45 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc918zUlEy7KF9lhGNgNo2_0q https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93mXU8zb0X56htLdxSOwF-n As the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran’s programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is preparing to continue into the sanctions and containment realm, as Israel continues its seemingly ineffective hardware …]]> Sun, 24 Jul 2022 18:21:31 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc93mXU8zb0X56htLdxSOwF-n https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90BcNq548GCEP9M7fKGWt0o Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!]]> Fri, 01 Jul 2022 02:19:36 +0200 https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/7QCfJmIhc90BcNq548GCEP9M7fKGWt0o