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Real yields set the swings; central banks set the floor. Confusing the two is expensive.
For two decades gold behaved like a mirror held up to real interest rates: yields up, gold down, with metronomic reliability. Around 2024 the mirror cracked. Gold returned some 65% in 2025, its best year since 1979, in the same twelve months that ten-year American real yiel...
Twice this year my forecasting pipeline has produced a number I would rather not have published. The first time was January: custody-derived holdings data covering tens of trillions of dollars of institutional assets showed the largest investors in the world carrying their widest equity-over-bond allocation gap in 15 years, a configuration whose only historic...
America turns 250 this week, and the market’s own birthday math contains an uncomfortable number for anyone bullish going into Q3. The ten largest companies in the S&P 500 now hold 40.7% of the index, the highest share on record, comfortably above the 23.2% reached at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
Most of Wall Street reads that as a warning sign: a market...
Gold has snapped below $4,000, about 26% off its January high. Silver’s been knifed into the high-$50s, bitcoin sits at a 20-month low under $60k, and Brent is back to its pre-Iran-war handle near $72. Every asset you’d buy to step outside the financial system went on the clearance rack at once - and gold ETFs are bl...
Mainstream sentiment has prepared to write gold's obituary. Gold trades roughly a quarter below the record it set in late January, silver has handed back close to half of its parabolic run, and a new Federal Reserve chair has spent five months demonstrating what a hawk does to a crowded long. The verdict, the story goes, is in: the debasement trade was a bubble, and Kevin War...