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“You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.”
— Warren Buffett
The inflation figures released last week were not particularly good. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in April and the year-over-year change is now 3.8%. The core numbers were better at 0.4% for the month and 2.8% year-over-year, but those were still higher than expected. Producer pri...
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become s...
So we’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn’t mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly.
Warren Buffett, CNBC interview, 5/2/26
If you’ve been reading these weekl...
The first 15 months of President Trump’s second term has seen a whirlwind of policy changes, many of which have been notable for their extreme nature. President Trump’s style, his modus operandi, is capricious and so are his policies – unpredictable, impulsive and often a result of anger at some perceived slight. To say that it is hard f...