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When the crowd leans one way, the boat is at risk of capsizing. With BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator triggering a contrarian "sell" signal and equity inflows hitting record highs, market participants are priced for a "Goldilocks" perfection that leaves zero margin of safety. While consensus bets on double-digit earnings growth and Fed cuts, a "Bear Steepener" in the yield curv...

The Fed just delivered a "Christmas gift" with a 25bps cut to 3.75% and a surprise $40B monthly balance sheet expansion—essentially "Baby QE." While markets hit record highs, FOMC "group think" may be masking a deteriorating labor market and looming 2026 tariff inflation. With fwd PEs at ~23x, history warns that subsequent 10-yr returns are often near zero.

The seismic shift triggered by ChatGPT 3 years ago reminds me of 1995 when Netscape hit our screen. But as we approach the year 2000 - several "greey swans" emerged. Could 2026 be similar. This post discusses some of the possible risks looming for next year. This AI revolution has many of the hallmarks we saw some 30 years ago; i.e., creating extreme capital concentration in gia...

Nvidia's earnings beat—reporting 62% YoY revenue growth and projecting $65B in Q4—solidified its position as the AI chip leader. Yet, the question for investors is not if the AI boom is real, it's how much you pay? The massive AI capital expenditure by giants like Google and Meta is transforming them from "asset light" platforms to "asset heavy" infrastructure owners. This shift...

Most of the Mag 7 tech giants are using an extended 5-to-6-year depreciation schedule for their massive GPU investments. Since GPUs typically have a 3-year useful life, this practice artificially inflates current earnings by reducing the reported expense. If these chips rapidly become obsolete, investors paying high multiples must question the impact on future Free Cash Flow and...